[Objective] With the increasing penetration of renewable energy
combined cycle power units are frequently operated for grid peak shaving. Affected by the strong nonlinearity and time-delay characteristics of the heat exchange process in heat recovery steam generators(HRSG)
traditional monitoring methods hardly support early fault detection of HRSG units. Accordingly
this paper proposes a data-driven hybrid model of LSTMTransformer-SHAP to realize dynamic anomaly detection and feedforward optimization for HRSG operational conditions. [Methods] Based on approximately 120 000 groups of operating data collected from an F-class combined cycle unit
the modeling and verification procedures are carried out. Firstly
an LSTM model is adopted to accurately predict turbine power
flue gas heat and steam heat
and obtain time-series deviation features. Secondly
an attentionbased encoder-decoder reconstruction algorithm is applied to identify temporal anomalies
and STL decomposition is used to distinguish different anomaly types via residual analysis. Furthermore
the random forest algorithm combined with the SHAP framework is employed for cross-verification and high-contribution parameter tracing. Finally
targeted optimization strategies for early fault suppression are formulated. [Results] The MAPE values of the LSTM model for flue gas heat and steam heat prediction are 2.0% and 1.2%
respectively
while the MAPE values for turbine power and steam temperature prediction are 1.5% and 0.3%. The random forest diagnosis model achieves a MAPE of only 0.21%. After feedforward optimization of HRSG performance anomalies
under steadystate conditions
the average reheat steam temperature and main steam temperature increase by 2.30 ℃ and 4.68 ℃
and the steam cycle output increases by 2.96 MW. [Conclusion] The proposed model establishes a complete closedloop framework covering prediction
diagnosis
tracing and optimization
which realizes earlier warning than traditional threshold alarm methods. The proposed feedforward optimization strategy can effectively restrain unit performance degradation and improve the operational safety and economy of combined cycle units under peak shaving conditions.