田书欣, 韩雪. 基于正交小波变换的LSTM-ARIMA海上风速组合预测模型[J]. 智慧电力, 2023, 51(7): 39-43,50.
引用本文: 田书欣, 韩雪. 基于正交小波变换的LSTM-ARIMA海上风速组合预测模型[J]. 智慧电力, 2023, 51(7): 39-43,50.
TIAN Shu-xin, HAN Xue. LSTM-ARIMA Offshore Wind Speed Combined Prediction Model Based on Orthogonal Wavelet Transform[J]. Smart Power, 2023, 51(7): 39-43,50.
Citation: TIAN Shu-xin, HAN Xue. LSTM-ARIMA Offshore Wind Speed Combined Prediction Model Based on Orthogonal Wavelet Transform[J]. Smart Power, 2023, 51(7): 39-43,50.

基于正交小波变换的LSTM-ARIMA海上风速组合预测模型

LSTM-ARIMA Offshore Wind Speed Combined Prediction Model Based on Orthogonal Wavelet Transform

  • 摘要: 海上环境的复杂使得单一的预测模型难以适应海上风速的间歇性与波动性。采用正交小波变换(OWT)将海上风速序列分解为低频子序列与高频子序列,再分别采用长短期记忆网络(LSTM)模型预测分解后的低频子序列,自回归综合移动平均(ARIMA)模型预测高频子序列,最后将两组预测序列组合,形成完整的风速预测结果。最后分别采用单一模型、组合模型对不同季节的典型日的风速进行预测,将单一模型预测曲线,组合模型预测曲线以及真实值预测曲线进行对比分析,结果表明相比单一模型,组合后的模型能提高预测的准确性与稳定性。

     

    Abstract: The complexity of offshore environment makes it difficult for a single forecasting model to adapt to the intermittency and fluctuation of offshore wind speed. The offshore wind speed sequence is decomposed into low frequency sub-sequence and high frequency sub-sequence by orthogonal wavelet transform(OWT). Then the decomposed low frequency sub-sequence is predicted by long and short term memory network(LSTM) model,and the high frequency sub-sequence is predicted by autoregressive comprehensive moving average(ARIMA)model. The two prediction sequences are combined to form a complete wind speed prediction result. Finally,the wind speed of typical days in different seasons is predicted by single model and combined model respectively,and the prediction curves of single model,combined model and real value are compared and analyzed. The results show that compared with the single model,the combined model can improve the accuracy and stability of the prediction.

     

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