翟保豫, 张龙, 徐志, 杨琪, 张元赫. 基于WRF模式和风速误差修正的中期风电功率预测方法[J]. 智慧电力, 2023, 51(7): 31-38.
引用本文: 翟保豫, 张龙, 徐志, 杨琪, 张元赫. 基于WRF模式和风速误差修正的中期风电功率预测方法[J]. 智慧电力, 2023, 51(7): 31-38.
ZHAI Bao-yu, ZHANG Long, XU Zhi, YANG Qi, ZHANG Yuan-he. Mid-term Wind Power Forecasting Based on WRF Mode and Wind Speed Error Correction[J]. Smart Power, 2023, 51(7): 31-38.
Citation: ZHAI Bao-yu, ZHANG Long, XU Zhi, YANG Qi, ZHANG Yuan-he. Mid-term Wind Power Forecasting Based on WRF Mode and Wind Speed Error Correction[J]. Smart Power, 2023, 51(7): 31-38.

基于WRF模式和风速误差修正的中期风电功率预测方法

Mid-term Wind Power Forecasting Based on WRF Mode and Wind Speed Error Correction

  • 摘要: 随着新能源保供电的重要性日渐凸显,调度人员对中期风电功率预测的需求程度也进一步加深。针对由预测前瞻时间增长导致的风速预测误差不断增大问题,提出一种基于中尺度数值天气预报模式(WRF)和风速误差修正的中期风电功率预测方法。首先,利用WRF模式获取高时空分辨率的数值天气预报数据;然后,采用混合高斯分布算法量化表征预测误差的时序规律,构建基于隐马尔科夫模型(HMM)的风速预测误差修正方法;最后,基于误差修正后的风速预测建立极端梯度增强(XGBoost)模型进行功率预测。算例分析表明,所提误差修正算法显著提升了风速预测精度,同时可有效降低中期风电功率预测误差。

     

    Abstract: The importance of new energy power supply is becoming increasingly prominent,and the scheduler’s demand for mediumterm wind power prediction is deepening. Regarding the problem of increasing wind speed prediction error with the increase of forecast forward time,the medium term wind power prediction method is proposed based on WRF mode and wind speed error correction. Firstly,WRF mode is used to obtain high spatiotemporal resolution numerical weather forecast data. Then,hybrid Gaussian distribution algorithm is used to quantify the timing rule of the prediction error,and Hidden Markov Model is used to correct the wind speed prediction error. Finally,based on the error-corrected wind speed prediction,the XGBoost prediction model is established for power prediction. Example analysis shows that the proposed error correction algorithm can significantly improve the wind speed prediction accuracy,effectively reduce the medium-term wind power prediction error.

     

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