刘瑾, 赵晶, 冯瑛敏, 周超, 姜美君, 章辉. 基于梯度提升决策树的电力物联网用电负荷预测[J]. 智慧电力, 2022, 50(8): 46-53.
引用本文: 刘瑾, 赵晶, 冯瑛敏, 周超, 姜美君, 章辉. 基于梯度提升决策树的电力物联网用电负荷预测[J]. 智慧电力, 2022, 50(8): 46-53.
LIU Jin, ZHAO Jing, FENG Ying-min, ZHOU Chao, JIANG Mei-jun, ZHANG Hui. Power Load Forecasting in Power Internet of Things Based on Gradient Boosting Decision Tree[J]. Smart Power, 2022, 50(8): 46-53.
Citation: LIU Jin, ZHAO Jing, FENG Ying-min, ZHOU Chao, JIANG Mei-jun, ZHANG Hui. Power Load Forecasting in Power Internet of Things Based on Gradient Boosting Decision Tree[J]. Smart Power, 2022, 50(8): 46-53.

基于梯度提升决策树的电力物联网用电负荷预测

Power Load Forecasting in Power Internet of Things Based on Gradient Boosting Decision Tree

  • 摘要: 在电力物联网系统中,为用户提供准确、快速的用电负荷预测一直起着至关重要的作用。由于台区内用户活动的可变性,导致用电负荷通常波动较大,传统方法往往难以准确预测。为了满足智能化、多功能的电力物联网监测,提出了一种基于梯度提升决策树的用电负荷预测方案。首先对台区内历史用电数据进行预处理,并构建时间窗口特征。然后使用基于梯度提升决策树的XGBoost和LightGBM交叉构建预测算法,并采用该算法预测下一时间段短期用电负荷结果,实现台区用电分析。最后与现有方案相比较,本文提出的方案可提供准确的负荷预测结果,在即将发生超负荷用电或者当前台区即将发生大规模停电时,能够及时发出预警。

     

    Abstract: It is very important to provide accurate and fast load forecasting for users in power Internet of things system. Because of the variability of user activities in station area,the load of power consumption fluctuates greatly,and it is difficult to predict accurately with traditional methods. In order to meet the intelligent and multi-functional monitoring of the power Internet of things,the power load forecasting scheme based on gradient lifting decision tree is proposed. Firstly,the historical power consumption data in station area is preprocessed and the time window features are constructed. Then,the prediction model is constructed by using XGBoost and LightGBM based on gradient lifting decision tree,and the short-term power load results in the next period are predicted by the model. Based on the above predicted value of power consumption,the power consumption analysis of the station area is realized. Compared with the existing schemes,the proposed scheme can provide accurate load forecasting results,and can give out early warning in time when overload power or large-scale power outage is about to occur in current station area.

     

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