韦权, 汤占军. 基于SSA-VMD-SE-KELM结合蒙特卡洛法的风电功率区间预测[J]. 智慧电力, 2022, 50(9): 59-66.
引用本文: 韦权, 汤占军. 基于SSA-VMD-SE-KELM结合蒙特卡洛法的风电功率区间预测[J]. 智慧电力, 2022, 50(9): 59-66.
WEI Quan, TANG Zhan-jun. Wind Power Range Prediction Based on SSA-VMD-SE-KELM Combined With Monte Carlo Method[J]. Smart Power, 2022, 50(9): 59-66.
Citation: WEI Quan, TANG Zhan-jun. Wind Power Range Prediction Based on SSA-VMD-SE-KELM Combined With Monte Carlo Method[J]. Smart Power, 2022, 50(9): 59-66.

基于SSA-VMD-SE-KELM结合蒙特卡洛法的风电功率区间预测

Wind Power Range Prediction Based on SSA-VMD-SE-KELM Combined With Monte Carlo Method

  • 摘要: 为降低风电功率序列波动性并提高风电功率预测精度,提出一种基于SSA-VMD-SE-KELM和蒙特卡洛法的组合风电功率区间预测模型。采用麻雀搜索算法(SSA)优化后的变分模态分解(VMD)算法将功率序列分解为理想数量子序列,通过计算样本熵(SE)对其重构,得到新子序列分别建立核极限学习机(KELM)点预测模型,叠加各点预测结果得到最终点预测结果及功率误差序列,使用蒙特卡洛法随机抽样得到对应置信度下的预测区间。以实际采集到的历史数据为例进行预测,实验结果表明:与传统模型相比,此模型所得功率预测区间紧密跟随风电功率变化趋势,其区间覆盖率更高、平均宽度更窄。

     

    Abstract: In order to reduce the volatility of wind power series and improve the prediction accuracy of wind power,a combined wind power interval prediction model based on SSA-VMD-SE-KELM and Monte Carlo method is proposed. The variational mode decomposition(VMD)algorithm optimized by the sparrow search algorithm(SSA)is used to decompose the power sequence into subsequences of ideal number,and then reconstruct them by calculating the sample entropy(SE)to obtain new subsequences to establish kernel limit learning machine(KELM)point prediction model,superimpose the prediction results of each point to obtain the final point prediction result and power error sequence,and Monte Carlo method is used to randomly sample to obtain the prediction interval under the corresponding confidence. Taking the actual collected historical data as an example,the experimental results show that compared with the traditional model,the power prediction interval obtained by the proposed model closely follows the change trend of wind power power,and its interval coverage rate is higher and the average width is narrower.

     

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