基于相似日和动量法优化BP神经网络的光伏短期功率预测研究
Short-term PV Power Prediction Based on BP Neural Network Optimized by Similar Daily and Momentum Method
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摘要: 提出了相似日和动量优化BP神经网络的光伏短期功率预测方法,采用与输出功率强相关的辐照度作为相似变量选取相似日,通过动量法优化并以相似日历史数据和气象信息作为训练样本建立BP神经网络预测模型。以新疆某光伏电站的实际运行数据进行验证分析,结果表明该方法在晴天和非晴天天气环境下能够达到预测精度,验证了所提模型和算法的准确性和有效性。Abstract: A short-term photovoltaic power prediction method based on BP neural network with similar days and momentum optimization is proposed. The similar days are selected by using the irradiance which is strongly related to the output power as a similar variable.The BP neural network prediction model is established by using the momentum method and the historical data and meteorological information of similar days as training samples. The actual operation data of a photovoltaic power station in Xinjiang are used for verification and analysis. The results show that the method can achieve accurate prediction accuracy in sunny and non sunny weather,and verifies the accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed model and algorithm.