双碳目标下我国电动汽车碳减排贡献潜力分析

Analysis on Carbon Emission Reduction Potential of Electric Vehicles in China under Goal of Carbon Neutrality and Carbon Peaking

摘要: 为分析碳达峰背景下我国电动汽车行驶阶段碳减排潜力，对电动汽车碳排放进行了多情景测算分析。首先，构建PCA-SMA-LSSVM预测模型对我国电动汽车保有量进行有效预测；然后，考虑电动汽车发展、电源及电网结构优化多种情景组合，对未来电动汽车碳排放潜力进行测算分析。最后，基于测算结果提出激发电动汽车碳减排潜力的相关建议。

Abstract: To analyze the carbon emission reduction potential of electric vehicles（EVs）in the driving phase under the background of carbon neutrality and carbon peaking, the paper employs a multi-scenario approach to evaluate EV carbon emissions. Firstly,a PCA-SMA-LSSVM model is established to accurately predict EV ownership in China. Then considering diverse scenarios including EV growth,power supply,and power grid structure optimization,the carbon emission potential of EVs in the future is calculated and analyzed.Relevant suggestions for stimulating the carbon emission reduction potential of EVs are proposed based on the calculation results.