基于样本熵和CNN-MGM混合模型的超短期风速预测

张楠; 朱永奇; 郑创; 孙娜; 薛小明

doi:doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-1646

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基于样本熵和CNN-MGM混合模型的超短期风速预测

更新时间：2026-02-06

- 基于样本熵和CNN-MGM混合模型的超短期风速预测
- 基于样本熵和CNN-MGM混合模型的超短期风速预测
- 太阳能学报 2026年47卷第1期页码：645-653
- 作者机构：
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  江苏省高校自然科学基金（24KJD480002;24KJD480001;21KJA460010）;江苏省自然科学基金（BK20201069）
- DOI：doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-1646
  中图分类号： TM614
- 网络首发：2026-02-05，
  
  纸质出版：2026-02-05
- 稿件说明：
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张楠, 朱永奇, 郑创, 等. 基于样本熵和CNN-MGM混合模型的超短期风速预测[J]. 太阳能学报, 2026,47(1):645-653.

张楠, 朱永奇, 郑创, et al. 基于样本熵和CNN-MGM混合模型的超短期风速预测[J]. 2026, 47(1): 645-653.
张楠, 朱永奇, 郑创, 等. 基于样本熵和CNN-MGM混合模型的超短期风速预测[J]. 太阳能学报, 2026,47(1):645-653. DOI： doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-1646.

张楠, 朱永奇, 郑创, et al. 基于样本熵和CNN-MGM混合模型的超短期风速预测[J]. 2026, 47(1): 645-653. DOI： doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-1646.

摘要

针对风速具有不稳定性和间歇性等特点

提出一种混合风速预测模型

该模型集成卷积神经网络（CNN）、最小门控存储网络（MGM）、鲸鱼优化算法（WOA）和时变滤波器经验模式分解（TVFEMD）。首先采用TVFEMD对原始风速序列进行分解

获得若干子序列;随后基于样本熵对分量复杂度进行评估

并对复杂度最高的分量实施TVFEMD二次分解。最后

将得到的各子序列输入混合预测模型进行建模与预测

从而获得对应的子序列预测结果

进而得出最终预测结果。实验结果表明

与其他模型对比

所提模型的平均绝对误差下降2.3%~8.6%

并在不同数据集中得到验证

这证明了混合模型在预测中的有效性。

Abstract

A hybrid wind speed prediction model is proposed to address the instability and intermittency of wind speed

which integrates convolutional neural networks （CNN）

minimum gated storage networks （MGM）

whale optimization algorithms （WOA）

and time-varying filter based empirical mode decomposition （TVFEMD）. TVFEMD is used decomposition to decompose the original wind speed data into multiple subsequences. Guided by sample entropy

use TVFEMD to decompose the sequence with the highest complexity twice. Then

the decomposed subsequences are input into the WOA algorithm optimized hybrid model for prediction

and the prediction results of each subsequence are obtained to produce the final result. The experimental results show that compared with other models

the average absolute error of the proposed model has decreased by 2.3%-8.6%

and the same effect has been achieved in different datasets

verifying the effectiveness of the mixed model in wind speed prediction.

关键词

Keywords

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