朱俊澎, 李子钰, 李虎军, et al. Short-term power load forecasting based on load decomposition and identification[J]. 2025, 27(2). DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-1831.2025.02.009.
In order to further reduce the forecasting error of electric load data
a short-term power load forecasting method based on load decomposition and identification is proposed. First
for the electric power load data of each industry
the polynomial fitting error of temperature-sensitive load to the temperature series is taken as the objective function
and the load decomposition is transformed into a mathematical optimization problem
and the total load of each industry is decomposed into the weekly load based on load identification component and the temperature-sensitive load component. Second
the short-term load prediction is performed for the temperature-sensitive load component based on the long short-term memory network. Finally
the temperature-sensitive load prediction results are superimposed with the weekly load based on load identification component to obtain the complete load forecast results. The results show that the short-term load forecasting method based on load decomposition and identification proposed can effectively reduce the short-term load forecasting error.