王子龙, 黄 莉. Electric vehicle charging load prediction in rural areas and its impact on rural power grids based on modified graph temporal convolutional network[J]. 2024, 26(5).
王子龙, 黄 莉. Electric vehicle charging load prediction in rural areas and its impact on rural power grids based on modified graph temporal convolutional network[J]. 2024, 26(5). DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-1831.2024.05.014.
Under the strong guidance of the new energy vehicles to the countryside policy
sales of electric vehicles in rural areas have grown rapidly. However
rural power grid is widely distributed
power supply lines are long
and charging load is relatively dispersed and difficult to predict. To this end
a charging load prediction model for electric vehicles in rural areas based on modified graph temporal convolutional network(MGTCN)is proposed. Firstly
a rural power grid graph structure matrix is constructed based on graph convolutional neural network to characterize the spatial information of user charging characteristics and reduce the dimension of input data. Secondly
a temporal convolutional network is introduced to perceive the time series information of charging data and mine the time series features that affect load forecasting. Then
an MGTCN algorithm based on attention mechanism is proposed for charging demand forecasting. The attention mechanism assigns different weights to each feature
and the model can adaptively learn network parameters. Finally
the effectiveness of proposed method in predicting electric vehicle charging load in rural areas is verified based on the example results
and the impact of charging load on rural power grids under different electric vehicle penetration rates is further analyzed.