广东省水文局江门水文分局,广东 江门 529030
林璐(1994—),女,硕士,主要从事风暴潮增水预报等工作。E-mail:Linlu1819@126.com
收稿:2025-04-01,
修回:2025-05-12,
录用:2025-05-12,
网络首发:2026-01-23,
纸质出版:2026-01-25
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林璐.珠江口—粤西海域风暴潮增水特征及经验预报[J].人民珠江,2026,47(1):23-32.
LIN Lu.Characteristics of Storm Surge-induced Water Level Increase and Empirical Forecasting in the Pearl River Estuary West Guangdong Sea Area[J].PEARL RIVER,2026,47(01):23-32.
林璐.珠江口—粤西海域风暴潮增水特征及经验预报[J].人民珠江,2026,47(1):23-32. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2026.01.003.
LIN Lu.Characteristics of Storm Surge-induced Water Level Increase and Empirical Forecasting in the Pearl River Estuary West Guangdong Sea Area[J].PEARL RIVER,2026,47(01):23-32. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2026.01.003.
以官冲站和北津港站作为珠江口—粤西海域的代表潮位站,选取2000—2021年30场台风,量化分析了台风登陆点到潮位站的距离和夹角与风暴潮增水的相关关系,通过2022—2023年风暴潮增水作业预报进行实例验证。结果表明:在湛江徐闻至茂名和阳江交界处登陆的台风,增水峰值主要出现在登陆前1~8 h,在阳江阳西至珠江口一带登陆的台风,多发生在登陆后0.2~15 h。登陆点到潮位站的夹角在225~270°且距离在100 km以内,引起的增水峰值最大。登陆点到官冲站夹角225~270°且距离100 km以内或者到北津港站夹角45~90°时,距离每缩短10 km,最大增水峰值官冲站上升约0.6 m,北津港站上升约0.07 m。在茂名和阳江交界处以及珠海市附近登陆的台风,台风中心气压每下降10 hPa,官冲站最大增水峰值上升约0.3 m,北津港站最大增水峰值上升约0.2 m。研究结果可实现单站快速预报,为沿海河口风暴潮经验预报提供有效参考。
In this paper
Guanchong Station and Beijingang Station were selected as the representative tide stations in the Pearl River Estuary West Guangdong Sea Area
and 30 typhoons from 2000 to 2021 were selected to quantitatively analyze the correlation of the distance and included angle between the typhoon landing point and the tide station with the storm surge
which was verified by an example of the storm surge-induced water level increase forecast in 2022—2023. The results show that for typhoons landing at the junction of Xuwen County
Zhanjiang City
Maoming City
and Yangjiang City
the peak value of water level increase mainly occurs 1~8 h before landing
and for typhoons landing at Yangxi County
Yangjiang City and the Pearl River Estuary
it mostly occurs 0.2~15 h after landing. The included angle between the landing point and the tide station ranges from 225° to 270°
and the distance is within 100 km
resulting in the highest peak water level increase. When the included angle between the landing point and Guanchong Station ranges from 225° to 270° within 100 km
or when the included angle between the landing point and Beijingang Station ranges from 45° to 90°
the maximum peak water level increase rises by about 0.6 m at Guanchong Station and about 0.07 m at Beijingang Station for every 10 km reduction in distance. The typhoon landing at the junction of Maoming and Yangjiang cities
as well as near Zhuhai City
has experienced a peak increase of approximately 0.3 m in maximum water level at Guanchong Station and 0.2 m at Beijingang Station for every 10 hPa decrease in central air pressure. The research results can achieve rapid single station forecasting and provide an effective reference for empirical forecasting of storm surges in coastal estuaries.
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