1.全球能源互联网发展合作组织,北京 100031
2.湘江实验室,长沙 410205
3.中南大学商学院,长沙 410083
[ "刘泽洪 1961-,男,硕士,教授级高工 长期组织和参与交、直流超/特高压输电系统的规划、科研、设计、工程建设及管理工作E-mail:zehong-liu@sgcc.com.cn" ]
[ "马志远(通信作者)1991-,女,博士,高级工程师 期从事气候变化与能源转型、电力系统规划理论与方法等方面研究 E-mail:zhiyuan-ma@geidco.org" ]
[ "陈星 1988-,女,博士,高级工程师 长期从事气候变化、低碳战略、能源系统规划、环境系统分析等方面研究 E-mail:xing-chen@geidco.org" ]
[ "侯方心 1990-,女,博士,高级工程师 长期从事能源电力系统规划、综合评估模型等方向研究E-mail:fangxin-hou@geidco.org" ]
[ "胡东滨 1969-,男,博士,教授 长期从事决策理论方法与工具、大数据分析、人工智能应用、资源能源与环境管理等方向研究 E-mail:hdbin@163.com" ]
收稿:2024-07-01,
修回:2024-11-05,
纸质出版:2024-11-30
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刘泽洪,马志远,陈星,等.考虑长期气候变化和极端天气影响的新型电力系统充裕性评估研究[J].新型电力系统,2024,02(4):434-444.
LIU Zehong,MA Zhiyuan,CHEN Xing,et al.Study on the Adequacy Assessment of the New Power System Considering Long-term Climate Change and Extreme Weather Effects[J].New Type Power Systems,2024,02(04):434-444.
刘泽洪,马志远,陈星,等.考虑长期气候变化和极端天气影响的新型电力系统充裕性评估研究[J].新型电力系统,2024,02(4):434-444. DOI: 10.20121/j.2097-2784.ntps.N20240067.
LIU Zehong,MA Zhiyuan,CHEN Xing,et al.Study on the Adequacy Assessment of the New Power System Considering Long-term Climate Change and Extreme Weather Effects[J].New Type Power Systems,2024,02(04):434-444. DOI: 10.20121/j.2097-2784.ntps.N20240067.
近年来极端天气事件发生频次高、影响范围广,极大威胁了电力系统充裕供应。首先,该文基于最新全球气候模式数据与区域降尺度方法分别获取中排放情景SSP245和高排放情景SSP585下,2060年我国各省所在网格逐小时的风速和光辐照度,并转换为逐小时风速和光伏出力。然后,根据持续低出力天气判据提取构建极端天气场景,分析了不同极端天气的时空分布特征。最后该文结合充裕性评估方法,对我国31省实证算例展开分析,评估了多种持续低出力场景对2060年我国电力系统供需充裕性的影响。
In recent years
extreme weather events have occurred frequently and had a wide impact
posing a great threat to the abundant supply of the power system. Firstly
based on the latest global climate mo
del data and regional downscaling methods
this article obtains the hourly wind speed and solar irradiance of each province's grid in China in 2060 under the medium CO
2
emission scenario SSP245 and high CO
2
emission scenario SSP585
and converts them into hourly wind speed and photovoltaic output. Then
based on the criteria for sustained low power output
extreme weather scenarios are constructed to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of different extreme weather events. Finally
this paper combines adequacy assessment methods to conduct an empirical analysis of the 31 provinces in China
evaluating the impact of various sustained low output scenarios on the adequacy of supply and demand in China’s power system in 2060.
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