
国网福建省电力有限公司经济技术研究院
纸质出版:2025
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王鹏飞, 陈雪, 李继宇, 等. 基于ERGAN和BO-BiGRU的变电站高压开关柜凝露临界温度预测[J]. 山东电力技术, 2025,52(9):87-95.
王鹏飞, 陈雪, 李继宇, 等. 基于ERGAN和BO-BiGRU的变电站高压开关柜凝露临界温度预测[J]. 山东电力技术, 2025,52(9):87-95. DOI: 10.20097/j.cnki.issn1007-9904.2025.09.009.
作为电力系统的核心电气设备,变电站高压开关柜受中国南方“回南天”气候影响易产生受潮凝露现象,进而发生设备误动或拒动事故,其复杂的受潮凝露机理导致凝露临界温度预测具有建模准确性低、凝露样本匮乏差的问题。为此,提出一种基于增强相对生成对抗网络(enhanced relative generative adversarial network
ERGAN)和贝叶斯优化双向循环门控单元(Bayesian optimization bidirectional gated recurrent unit
BO-BiGRU)的变电站高压开关柜凝露临界温度预测方法,旨在提高变电站高压开关柜的凝露临界温度预测精度。首先,针对凝露样本匮乏的问题,设计ERGAN扩充训练样本,该模型引入相对损失函数与梯度惩罚项,并使用一维卷积层和谱归一化层重构生成器和判别器,有效提高了生成样本的质量和训练稳定性;其次,通过贝叶斯优化对BiGRU模型的超参数进行迭代寻优,构建BO-BiGRU模型对凝露临界值进行预测。最后,采用福建某变电站35 kV高压开关柜实测数据进行仿真验证。仿真结果表明,以平均绝对误差为例,相较于模型驱动方法,所提方法的预测性能提高了68.95%,为变电站高压开关柜凝露防治奠定基础。
As the core electrical equipment in the power system
the high-voltage switchgear in substations is affected by the climate of southern China
leading to equipment malfunction or refusal to operate. The intricate mechanism of moisture condensation poses challenges in predicting the critical temperature of condensation
resulting in low modeling accuracy and a lack of condensation samples.To tackle these challenges
a prediction method for the critical condensation temperature of highvoltage switchgear in substation is proposed
based on enhanced relative generative adversarial networks(ERGAN) and Bayesian optimization bidirectional gated recurrent unit(BO-BiGRU)networks.This method aims to improve the prediction accuracy of the condensation critical temperature of high-voltage switchgear.Firstly
to address the scarcity of condensation samples
ERGAN is designed to expand the training samples.This model introduces a relative loss function and a gradient penalty term
and utilizes one-dimensional convolutional layers and spectral normalization layers to reconstruct the generator and discriminator
effectively improving the quality of generated samples and training stability.Secondly
Bayesian optimization is employed to iteratively optimize the hyperparameters of BiGRU model
constructing BO-BiGRU model to predict the critical value of condensation. Finally
real-world data from 35 kV high-voltage switchgear in substation in Fujian are used for simulation verification. Simulation results indicate that
taking the mean absolute error as an example
the prediction performance of the proposed method is 68.95% higher than that of model-driven methods
laying a foundation for the prevention and control of condensation in high-voltage switchgear in substations.
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