
1. 国网天津市电力公司城南供电分公司
2. 天津大学智能电网教育部重点实验室
3. 国网山东省电力公司潍坊供电公司
纸质出版:2025
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白卓, 郭啸, 孙华忠. 基于L-M优化BP算法的多因素协同电力负荷预测[J]. 山东电力技术, 2025,52(7):68-75.
白卓, 郭啸, 孙华忠. 基于L-M优化BP算法的多因素协同电力负荷预测[J]. 山东电力技术, 2025,52(7):68-75. DOI: 10.20097/j.cnki.issn1007-9904.2025.07.007.
电力负荷预测对电网的规划与营运尤为重要,可以帮助电网公司对电力资源进行合理调度,更好地平衡电力资源,从而提高电力系统的经济性和稳定性。针对现有神经网络算法精度差、收敛性不高等缺点,提出基于列文伯格-马夸尔特(Levenberg-Marquardt
L-M)优化反向传播(back propagation
BP)算法的多因素协同电力负荷预测方法,在改进BP算法的基础上利用L-M算法,融合最速下降法和高斯-牛顿法克服了训练慢、易陷入局部极值、预测误差大等缺点,通过Trainlm、Traingd、Trainrp等对L-M算法进行训练,考虑包含温度、气温、日期等影响电力负荷的因素并协同冷、热负荷对电力负荷进行预测,最后以某居民小区为例验证所提方法的有效性。与其他方法相比,L-M优化BP算法的多因素协同电力负荷预测在解决非线性复杂预测问题上表现出色,不仅准确度较高而且计算速度更快、误差更小。
Power load forecasting is particularly important for the planning and operation of the power grid
as it can help power grid companies to make reasonable scheduling of power resources
better balance power resources
and thus improve the economy and stability of the power system.This article proposes a multi-factor collaborative power load forecasting method based on Levenberg Marquardt(L-M)optimized backpropagation(BP)algorithm to address the shortcomings of existing algorithm optimized BP neural networks
such as poor accuracy and low convergence. On the basis of improving the BP algorithm
the L-M algorithm is used to integrate the steepest descent method and Gaussian Newton method to overcome the disadvantages of slow training
easy fall into local optima
and large prediction errors.Trainlm
Traingd
Trainrp
etc.
are used to train the L-M algorithm
considering factors that affect power loads such as temperature
air temperature
and date
and to predict power load in conjunction with cooling and heating loads.Finally
the effectiveness of the proposed method was verified using a residential community as an example.Compared with other methods
the L-M optimized BP algorithm for multi-factor collaborative power load forecasting performs well in solving nonlinear and complex forecasting problems with high accuracy
faster calculation speed
and smaller errors.
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