As a major province in economic development and energy consumption

evaluating the effectiveness of energytransformation and proposing carbon peak strategies in Shandong Province is crucial for achieving the dual carbon goalsnationwide.Based on the energy consumption statistics of Shandong Province from 2015 to 2020

constrained by achieving the "dual carbon" goal

the influencing factors of carbon emissions were decomposed

and an energy model system was constructedbased on the Chinese energy modeling system

taking into account the mutual influence of Shandong Province's economy

energy

electricity

environment

and other factors

a dynamic simulation of energy consumption and carbon emissions inShandong Province in the medium to long term under different scenarios was conducted

taking into account the mutualinfluence of economy

energy

electricity

and emissions in Shandong Province. The evaluation index system for energytransformation at home and abroad was summarized and studied

and an evaluation index system for the effectiveness of energytransformation in Shandong Province was constructed.A carbon peak strategy was proposed.The results show that the energydemand in Shandong Province will peak around 2030 and then decrease

with a clean rate of 83.5%.It is expected that thecarbon emissions in Shandong Province will enter a stable downward trend during the 15th Five-Year Plan.Due to the highemission base

low cleanliness rate

lack of hydropower resources

and high resistance to clean substitution of a large numberof self-owned thermal power units in Shandong Province

achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 is a challenging task.