南通市极端降水时空演变特征及驱动机制

辛朋磊; 刘淼; 周向前; 吕敏; 蒋庆丰

doi:10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2026.20250672

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南通市极端降水时空演变特征及驱动机制

水文水资源与环境 | 更新时间：2026-09-10

- 南通市极端降水时空演变特征及驱动机制
- 南通市极端降水时空演变特征及驱动机制
- 水电能源科学 2026年44卷第5期页码：22-26+109
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 江苏省水文水资源勘测局南通分局
  2. 江苏省水文水资源勘测局
  3. 南通大学地理科学学院
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  南通市科技计划项目(JC2024006)
- DOI：10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2026.20250672
  中图分类号： P426.6
- 纸质出版：2026
- 稿件说明：
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辛朋磊, 刘淼, 周向前, 等. 南通市极端降水时空演变特征及驱动机制[J]. 水电能源科学, 2026,44(5):22-26+109.

辛朋磊, 刘淼, 周向前, et al. 南通市极端降水时空演变特征及驱动机制[J]. 2026, 44(5): 22-26+109.
辛朋磊, 刘淼, 周向前, 等. 南通市极端降水时空演变特征及驱动机制[J]. 水电能源科学, 2026,44(5):22-26+109. DOI： 10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2026.20250672.

辛朋磊, 刘淼, 周向前, et al. 南通市极端降水时空演变特征及驱动机制[J]. 2026, 44(5): 22-26+109. DOI： 10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2026.20250672.

摘要

针对南通市防洪安全需求，基于1960～2023年南通市18个站点降水数据及ERA5再分析资料，采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验、小波分析和SHAP可解释性框架等方法，系统刻画南通市极端降水时空变化并识别主导因子。结果表明，时间维度上，降水强度、Rx1day和Rx3day呈上升趋势，而降水日数和Rx1h呈下降趋势，表明降水过程趋于集中；空间维度上，极端降水指数总体增幅4.39%～28.41%

区域差异显著扩大，崇川区成为高值中心，海安市里下河地区跃升为新的强降水热点；周期特征显示39～49、21～27、7～8年三个主周期共存，模型预测2037年将出现年降水量峰值；驱动机制方面，降水与温度正相关(ρ=0.57～0.61)

与气压负相关(ρ=-0.67)

SHAP分析进一步确认气压贡献度>27、日照时数贡献度23.75

揭示低压系统水汽汇聚及太阳辐射热力不稳定是降水增强的关键物理过程。研究结论可为南通市防洪减灾和水资源精细化管理提供科学依据。

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