1. 长江勘测规划设计研究有限责任公司
2. 流域水安全保障湖北省重点实验室
3. 长江水利委员会水旱灾害防御创新团队
纸质出版:2025
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袁玉, 胡学东, 洪兴骏, 等. 基于MCMC法的洪水资源利用大坝安全风险研究[J]. 水电能源科学, 2025,(4):208-212.
袁玉, 胡学东, 洪兴骏, et al. 基于MCMC法的洪水资源利用大坝安全风险研究[J]. 2025, (4): 208-212.
袁玉, 胡学东, 洪兴骏, 等. 基于MCMC法的洪水资源利用大坝安全风险研究[J]. 水电能源科学, 2025,(4):208-212. DOI: 10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2025.20240578.
袁玉, 胡学东, 洪兴骏, et al. 基于MCMC法的洪水资源利用大坝安全风险研究[J]. 2025, (4): 208-212. DOI: 10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2025.20240578.
针对传统的概率统计(PSA)法计算基于水库汛限水位优化的洪水资源利用大坝安全风险率需以充分历史统计资料为依据的局限性,提出采用马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗随机模拟(MCMC)法计算大坝安全风险率,并以石梁河水库开展实例研究。结果表明,MCMC法适用于洪水资源利用大坝安全风险率计算,对缺乏统计资料地区或统计资料不充分地区MCMC法的计算结果精度优于PSA法,且MCMC法的计算结果精度随模拟洪水场次的增加而提高;MCMC法在较低汛限水位计算风险率偏低、较高汛限水位计算风险率偏高,有利于在充分评估大坝安全风险的前提下发挥水库洪水资源利用效益,确定更加经济可靠的汛限水位优化方案。
李佳,傅志敏,王亚坤.考虑Copula-LM-HMS耦联的台风情境下大坝洪水漫顶风险率计算[J].中国农村水利水电,2024(01).
刘墉达,陈喜,高满,孟详博,刘维翰,黄日超.基于MCMC和ES-MDA方法的地下水数值模型非均质参数场及开采量的反演研究[J].水利学报,2023(10).
杨吉,巨鑫慧,李力群,周鹏程,龚轶青.基于SWAT模型的西枝江流域洪水资源利用潜力研究[J].水电能源科学,2023(08).
郭爱军,杨笛,王义民,吴彬.设计洪水不确定性下的水库防洪风险调度[J].工程科学与技术,2023(02).
李宗樾,余雷,胡泽林,程井.混凝土坝洪水漫顶生命风险评价[J].水利水运工程学报,2022(02).
胡泽林,程井,刘晓青,李宗樾.LHS-MC与Copula函数在洪水漫坝率计算中的应用[J].水电能源科学,2021(01).
刘章君,许新发,成静清,温天福,张范平,徐珺恺.基于Copula函数的大坝洪水漫顶风险率计算[J].水力发电学报,2019(03).
王宗志,王银堂,胡四一,刘克琳,程亮.流域洪水资源利用的理论框架探讨Ⅰ:定量解析[J].水利学报,2017(08).
方国华,朱丽向,黄显峰.沿海平原城市雨洪资源利用及风险管理研究[M].中国水利水电出版社,2017.
Abdi Babak,Bozorg-Haddad Omid,Loáiciga Hugo A.Analysis of the effect of inputs uncertainty on riverine water temperature predictions with a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm.[J].Environmental monitoring and assessment,2020.
Ivan Gabriel Martin,Alvaro Sordo Ward,Luis Garrote,Isabel Granados.Hydrological Risk Analysis of Dams: The Influence of Initial Reservoir Level Conditions[J].Water,2019.
College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China,College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China,College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China,State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, 100038, China,State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610065, China,College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China,State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, 100038, China,State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610065, China,College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China,State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, 100038, China,State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, 100038, China,State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, 100038, China.A novel operation chart for cascade hydropower system to alleviate ecological degradation in hydrological extremes[J].Ecological Modelling,2018.
original> .A simple introduction to Markov Chain Monte-Carlo sampling.[J].Psychonomic bulletin & review,2018.
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