为研究海平面上升对上海市沿岸设计高潮位的影响,选取石洞口、吴淞、金山嘴、芦潮港等7个典型潮位站,依据海平面上升速率及历史序列长度修正P-Ⅲ曲线参数,预估了各典型潮位站在3种温升情景下未来70年100~1 000年一遇设计高潮位变化,并评估了海塘防御能力。结果表明,海平面上升速率与设计潮位增量显著相关,截至2035年,设计高潮位预计较现状抬升8~12 cm
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