构网型储能系统热失控与长期衰退耦合的可靠性研究

李熙志; 林伟; 杨文龙; 朱文超; 杨扬; 谢长君

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0825

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构网型储能系统热失控与长期衰退耦合的可靠性研究

更新时间：2026-10-15

- 构网型储能系统热失控与长期衰退耦合的可靠性研究
- 构网型储能系统热失控与长期衰退耦合的可靠性研究
- 太阳能学报 2026年47卷第9期页码：88-98
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- DOI：10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0825
  中图分类号： TK02
- 网络首发：2026-10-10，
  
  纸质出版：2026
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李熙志, 林伟, 杨文龙, 等. 构网型储能系统热失控与长期衰退耦合的可靠性研究[J]. 太阳能学报, 2026,47(9):88-98.

李熙志, 林伟, 杨文龙, et al. 构网型储能系统热失控与长期衰退耦合的可靠性研究[J]. 2026, 47(9): 88-98.
李熙志, 林伟, 杨文龙, 等. 构网型储能系统热失控与长期衰退耦合的可靠性研究[J]. 太阳能学报, 2026,47(9):88-98. DOI： 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0825.

李熙志, 林伟, 杨文龙, et al. 构网型储能系统热失控与长期衰退耦合的可靠性研究[J]. 2026, 47(9): 88-98. DOI： 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0825.

摘要

随着高渗透新能源接入

构网型储能系统被更多地用于构建新型电力系统。然而

储能系统的可靠性与运行温度强相关：高温不仅加速容量衰减

还易触发热失控。该文提出一种构网型电池储能系统（grid-forming battery energy storage system

GFM-BESS）可靠性分析框架

基于构网系统运行特性

构建电-热-容量多域耦合模型

并将热失控与衰退失效概率模型相关联

将其嵌入蒙特卡洛仿真框架

基于组串拓扑评估系统可靠度与失电风险

实现从单体失效到整体性能演化的分析;在风储互补系统中开展多场景仿真

评估不同初始电池荷电状态（SOC）及调度策略下的运行可靠性。仿真结果表明

该框架能有效反映构网型储能在动态扰动与衰退耦合工况下的性能演化。

Abstract

With the high penetration of new energy sources

grid-forming BESSs are more frequently used to build new power systems. However

the reliability of BESS is highly correlated with the operating temperature： high temperature not only accelerates the capacity degradation

but also triggers the thermal runaway. This paper proposes a reliability analysis framework for grid-forming BESS

constructs a multi-domain coupling model of electricity-heat-capacity based on the operating characteristics of the grid-forming system

associates the thermal runaway with the degradation failure probability model

embeds it into the Monte Carlo simulation framework

and evaluates the system reliability and the risk of loss of power based on the topology of the string groups to analyze the evolution from cell failure to the overall performance. A multi-scenario simulation is carried out in the wind-storage complementary system to evaluate the operational reliability under different initial SOC and dispatch strategies. The simulation results show that the framework can effectively reflect the performance evolution of grid-forming energy storage under dynamic perturbation and degradation coupling conditions.

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references

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