计及光伏分层消纳与离网供电可靠性的农村微电网光储协同规划方法

刘一欣; 李彦榕; 郭力; 马良; 姜世公; 李鹏

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0225

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计及光伏分层消纳与离网供电可靠性的农村微电网光储协同规划方法

更新时间：2026-07-22

- 计及光伏分层消纳与离网供电可靠性的农村微电网光储协同规划方法
- 计及光伏分层消纳与离网供电可靠性的农村微电网光储协同规划方法
- 太阳能学报 2026年47卷第6期页码：131-143
- 作者机构：
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0225
  中图分类号： TM715
- 网络首发：2026-07-08，
  
  纸质出版：2026
- 稿件说明：
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刘一欣, 李彦榕, 郭力, 等. 计及光伏分层消纳与离网供电可靠性的农村微电网光储协同规划方法[J]. 太阳能学报, 2026,47(6):131-143.

刘一欣, 李彦榕, 郭力, et al. 计及光伏分层消纳与离网供电可靠性的农村微电网光储协同规划方法[J]. 2026, 47(6): 131-143.
刘一欣, 李彦榕, 郭力, 等. 计及光伏分层消纳与离网供电可靠性的农村微电网光储协同规划方法[J]. 太阳能学报, 2026,47(6):131-143. DOI： 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0225.

刘一欣, 李彦榕, 郭力, et al. 计及光伏分层消纳与离网供电可靠性的农村微电网光储协同规划方法[J]. 2026, 47(6): 131-143. DOI： 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0225.

摘要

为提升农村分布式光伏消纳能力和供电可靠性

提出一种农村微电网光储分层协同规划方法。首先

构建基于DenseNet-Autoformer网络的中长期负荷预测模型

基于自相关机制深度提取时序特征

综合考虑气象、经济等要素得到月用电量预测结果;其次

采用具有梯度惩罚的Wasserstein生成对抗网络扩充源荷场景样本

并基于高斯混合聚类得到规划期内的典型源荷场景;最后

在台区层面考虑并网电量自平衡能力和离网重要负荷的可靠供电需求

基于机会约束量化极端场景下的供电可靠性

得到台区光储配置方案;同时

考虑10 kV馈线整体自平衡能力

优化得到馈线级光储配置方案。仿真结果表明

所提方法可提升农村微电网自平衡能力和分布式光伏就地消纳水平

并改善极端场景下重要负荷的供电可靠性。

Abstract

To enhance the consumption capacity of distributed photovoltaic （PV） and improve the power supply reliability of rural areas

this paper proposes a hierarchical coordinated planning method of PV and energy storage system for rural microgrids. Firstly

the medium and long-term load forecasting model based on the DenseNet-Autoformer network is proposed

which uses the autocorrelation mechanism to extract the deep time-series features

and comprehensively considers factors such as meteorology and economy on long-term monthly electricity consumption; Secondly

the Wasserstein generative adversarial network-gradient penalty method is used to expand the PV power samples. On this basis

the typical source and load scenarios are obtained via Gaussian mixture clustering; Finally

taking into account the electricity self-sufficiency and the off-grid reliability

the PV and storage configuration plan of the distribution transformer area is optimized

and the power supply reliability under extreme scenarios is quantified based on chance constraints. Meanwhile

considering the overall energy self-sustained ability of the 10 kV feeder

the feeder-level PV and storage configuration plan is optimized. The simulation results show that the proposed method can enhance the energy self-sustained ability and PV consumption capacity of rural microgrids and improve the power supply reliability in extreme scenarios.

关键词

Keywords

references

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