极端气象条件下综合能源系统可靠性评估方法研究与展望

曾林俊; 马宏毅; 肖赞; 卿巍; 徐佳妮; 刘铮

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0151

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极端气象条件下综合能源系统可靠性评估方法研究与展望

更新时间：2026-07-22

- 极端气象条件下综合能源系统可靠性评估方法研究与展望
- 极端气象条件下综合能源系统可靠性评估方法研究与展望
- 太阳能学报 2026年47卷第6期页码：78-92
- 作者机构：
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  湖南省自然科学基金（2026JJ80510）;国家自然科学基金（52307080）;湖南省大学生创新训练项目（S202410536180）
- DOI：10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0151
  中图分类号： TM732
- 网络首发：2026-07-08，
  
  纸质出版：2026
- 稿件说明：
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曾林俊, 马宏毅, 肖赞, 等. 极端气象条件下综合能源系统可靠性评估方法研究与展望[J]. 太阳能学报, 2026,47(6):78-92.

曾林俊, 马宏毅, 肖赞, et al. 极端气象条件下综合能源系统可靠性评估方法研究与展望[J]. 2026, 47(6): 78-92.
曾林俊, 马宏毅, 肖赞, 等. 极端气象条件下综合能源系统可靠性评估方法研究与展望[J]. 太阳能学报, 2026,47(6):78-92. DOI： 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0151.

曾林俊, 马宏毅, 肖赞, et al. 极端气象条件下综合能源系统可靠性评估方法研究与展望[J]. 2026, 47(6): 78-92. DOI： 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0151.

摘要

全球气候变化背景下

极端高温、严寒低温冰冻、强风暴雨等极端气象事件频发

严重威胁综合能源系统（IES）的运行可靠性。基于上述事件

首先

聚焦极端气象下综合能源系统可靠性评估方法

深入剖析极端高温、严寒低温冰冻、强风暴雨3种极端气象对能源生产设备

涵盖发电、供热、储能设备及能源传输网络的多方面影响。其次

全面综述针对这些极端气象的综合能源系统可靠性评估方法

探讨现有方法在气象数据处理、系统耦合建模、多方法融合、韧性量化及多因素考量等方面的不足。最后

对极端气象条件下综合能源系统运行可靠性评估提出未来可能的研究方向

旨在为提升极端气象下IES可靠性评估的准确性与有效性提供一定的理论与实践参考

保障能源供应安全与稳定。

Abstract

Under the background of global climate change

extreme weather events such as extreme high temperature

cold and freezing temperature

and strong wind and heavy rain occur frequently

which seriously threaten the operational reliability of integrated energy system （IES）. Based on this

we firstly focus on the reliability assessment methods of integrated energy system under extreme weather

and analyze the impacts of three types of extreme weather

namely

extreme high temperature

severe cold and freezing temperature

and strong wind and rainstorm

on the energy production equipment （including power generation

heat supply

and energy storage equipment） and the energy transmission network in various aspects. Secondly

we comprehensively review the integrated energy system reliability assessment methods under these extreme weather conditions

and explore the shortcomings of the existing methods in terms of meteorological data processing

system coupling modeling

multi-method fusion

toughness quantification

and multi-factor considerations. Finally

possible future research directions are proposed for the operational reliability assessment of integrated energy systems under extreme meteorological conditions

aiming to provide certain theoretical and practical references for improving the accuracy and effectiveness of IES reliability assessment under extreme meteorological conditions

so as to guarantee the safety and stability of energy supply.

关键词

Keywords

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