网络首发:2026-07-08,
纸质出版:2026
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蒋亚雪, 钱晶, 何昊城, 等. 基于K-medoids聚类的分布式光伏集群方法及短期功率预测[J]. 太阳能学报, 2026,47(6):645-655.
蒋亚雪, 钱晶, 何昊城, et al. 基于K-medoids聚类的分布式光伏集群方法及短期功率预测[J]. 2026, 47(6): 645-655.
蒋亚雪, 钱晶, 何昊城, 等. 基于K-medoids聚类的分布式光伏集群方法及短期功率预测[J]. 太阳能学报, 2026,47(6):645-655. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0064.
蒋亚雪, 钱晶, 何昊城, et al. 基于K-medoids聚类的分布式光伏集群方法及短期功率预测[J]. 2026, 47(6): 645-655. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0064.
为实现对光伏集群的科学聚类划分
该文融合考虑气象因素和地理位置对光伏电站聚类的影响
将出力特性作为子集群的划分特征
提出一种基于改进曼哈顿距离的K中心点聚类算法(K-中心点)。光伏集群聚类的两个关键是气象特征的有效识别和各电站的相似性度量
为此采用变异系数法与秩和比法相结合对气象输入特征进行提取
可提高特征的识别有效性。另一方面将改进曼哈顿距离引入K-中心点聚类算法中
充分挖掘数据的动态特性
并采用3种内部有效指标优化聚类划分数
避免常规划分带来的分散性和偏差
提高聚类的整体效果。此外
在聚类基础上进行预测验证
为解决预测模型的参数设置问题
在预测模型中融入优化算法
采用改进灰狼优化算法(IGWO)对iTransformer和极度梯度提升(XGBoost)模型中的参数进行优化
功率预测结果表明所提聚类算法的有效性以及较高的精度。
For the purpose of achieving a scientifically rigorous and methodologically sound clustering partition of photovoltaic clusters
this study incorporates the synergistic effects of meteorological factors and geographical positioning on the clustering of photovoltaic power stations. Employing output characteristics as the basis for subgroup delineation
the paper introduces a -medoids clustering algorithm based upon an enhanced Manhattan distance metric. The two pivotal dimensions in photovoltaic cluster analysis encompass the robust identification of meteorological features and the precise quantification of inter-station similarity. Accordingly
an integrated approach combining the coefficient of variation method with the rank-sum ratio method is utilized to derive meteorological input features
thereby augmenting the efficacy of feature discrimination. Moreover
the refined Manhattan distance is embedded within the -medoids framework to comprehensively elucidate the dynamic attributes inherent in the dataset. Three internally validated clustering metrics are leveraged to optimize cluster cardinality
effectively mitigating the dispersion and systematic bias endemic to conventional partitioning approaches while enhancing overall clustering robustness. Subsequent predictive validation is performed based on the established clusters. To resolve the challenge of parameter calibration within the forecasting model
metaheuristic optimization techniques are integrated. Specifically
an improved grey wolf optimization (IGWO) algorithm is deployed to fine-tune the hyperparameters of both the iTransformer and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) architectures. The power forecasting results verify the operational efficacy and superior predictive accuracy of the proposed clustering methodology.
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吴汉斌, 时珉, 郑焕坤, 等. 基于EEMD-ALOCO-SVM模型的光伏功率短期区间预测[J]. 太阳能学报, 2023, 44(11): 64-71.
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姜建国, 杨效岩, 毕洪波. 基于VMD-FE-CNN-BiLSTM的短期光伏发电功率预测[J]. 太阳能学报, 2024, 45(7): 462-473.
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牛甲俊, 张薇, 许达明. 基于FCM和ITransformer-TCN的短期风电集群功率预测[J]. 东北电力大学学报, 2024, 44(1): 9-16.
阮楚婷, 冯启明, 赵劲民, 等. 基于变异系数法和耦合协调度模型的广西三级公立综合医院高质量发展状况研究[J]. 现代预防医学, 2024, 51(9): 1643-1648.
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