多状态可再生能源分布式发电系统可靠性评估

温艳清; 郑晓亚; 陈剑慧; 张慧; 刘宝亮; 邱青安

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-1879

欢迎来到能源电力期刊网！

English Version 读者登录期刊登录

您当前的位置：

首页 >

文章列表页 >

多状态可再生能源分布式发电系统可靠性评估

更新时间：2025-10-18

- 多状态可再生能源分布式发电系统可靠性评估
- RELIABILITY EVALUATION OF MULTI-STATE RENEWABLE ENERGY DISTRIBUTED GENERATION SYSTEMS
- 太阳能学报 2025年46卷第3期页码：199-206
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 山西大同大学数学与统计学院,大同 037009
  2. 中国兵器工业标准化研究所,北京 100089
  3. 北京理工大学管理学院,北京 100081
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  国家自然科学基金（71601101;72371030;72001026）;山西省基础研究计划（20210302124310）
- DOI：10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-1879
  中图分类号： O213TM711
- 网络出版：2025-04-07，
  
  纸质出版：2025
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
温艳清, 郑晓亚, 陈剑慧, 张慧, 刘宝亮, 邱青安. 多状态可再生能源分布式发电系统可靠性评估[J]. 太阳能学报, 2025, 46(3): 199-206.

Wen Yanqing, Zheng Xiaoya, Chen Jianhui, et al. RELIABILITY EVALUATION OF MULTI-STATE RENEWABLE ENERGY DISTRIBUTED GENERATION SYSTEMS[J]. 2025, 46(3): 199-206.
温艳清, 郑晓亚, 陈剑慧, 张慧, 刘宝亮, 邱青安. 多状态可再生能源分布式发电系统可靠性评估[J]. 太阳能学报, 2025, 46(3): 199-206. DOI： 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-1879.

Wen Yanqing, Zheng Xiaoya, Chen Jianhui, et al. RELIABILITY EVALUATION OF MULTI-STATE RENEWABLE ENERGY DISTRIBUTED GENERATION SYSTEMS[J]. 2025, 46(3): 199-206. DOI： 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-1879.

摘要

针对可再生能源发电系统可靠性建模中二值状态局限性的问题

根据发电系统输出功率和用户电力负载动态变化的特征

构建太阳能光伏发电系统、风力发电系统、用户电力负载相互交叉组合的多状态马尔可夫过程模型

运用聚合随机过程理论

推导出度量系统可靠性的两个重要指标：可用度和供电不足的平均时间。最后

通过数值算例验证模型的正确性和适用性。

Abstract

In order to overcome the limitation of binary state in reliability modeling of renewable energy power generation systems

Multi-state Markov process models are constructed for the cross combination of solar photovoltaic power generation system

wind power generation system

and user power load based on the characteristics of dynamic changes in output power and user power load of the power generation system. Two important reliability indexes

availability and loss of load expectation

are derived by employing aggregated stochastic process theory. Finally

the correctness and applicability of the model are verified by numerical examples. The results show that the proposed model can provide a good theoretical basis for the reliability modeling of renewable energy power generation systems

and a more accurate reliability evaluation of power supply systems can be also achieved by using the proposed model and techniques.

关键词

Keywords

references

IEA. Trends in photovoltaic applications: survey report of selected IEA countries between1992 and 2005[R]. IEA-PVPS T1-15: 2006, the International Energy Agency, Paris, France.

张晓红, 张剑飞, 何于港, 等. 基于多状态空间划分的风电机组非完美维修决策[J]. 太阳能学报, 2022, 43(11): 203-214.

丁明, 胡迪, 毕锐, 等. 含高渗透率可再生能源的配电网可靠性分析[J]. 太阳能学报, 2020, 41(2): 194-202.

ATWA Y M, EL-SAADANY E F, SALAMA M M A, et al. Optimal renewable resources mix for distribution system energy loss minimization[J]. IEEE transactions on power systems, 2010, 25(1): 360-370.

HEGAZY Y G, SALAMA M M A, CHIKHANI A Y. Adequacy assessment of distributed generation systems using Monte Carlo Simulation[J]. IEEE transactions on power systems, 2003, 18(1): 48-52.

EL-KHATTAM W, HEGAZY Y G, SALAMA M M A. Investigating distributed generation systems performance using Monte Carlo simulation[J]. IEEE transactions on power systems, 2006, 21(2): 524-532.

REI A M, SCHILLING M T.Reliability assessment of the Brazilian power system using enumeration and Monte Carlo[J]. IEEE transactions on power systems, 2008, 23(3): 1480-1487.

LI Y F, ZIO E.A multi-state model for the reliability assessment of a distributed generation system via universal generating function[J]. Reliability engineering & system safety, 2012, 106: 28-36.

DING Y, SHEN W X, LEVITIN G, et al.Economical evaluation of large-scale photovoltaic systems using Universal Generating Function techniques[J]. Journal of modern power systems and clean energy, 2013, 1(2): 167-176.

CHENG J, TANG Y H, YU M M.The reliability of solar energy generating system with inverters in series under common cause failure[J]. Applied mathematical modelling, 2019, 68: 509-522.

MAIHULLA A S, YUSUF I, SALIHU ISA M.Reliability modeling and performance evaluation of solar photovoltaic system using Gumbel-Hougaard family copula[J]. International journal of quality & reliability management, 2022, 39(8): 2041-2057.

OSTOVAR S, ESMAEILI-NEZHAD A, MOEINI-AGHTAIE M, et al.Reliability assessment of distribution system with the integration of photovoltaic and energy storage systems[J]. Sustainable energy, grids and networks, 2021, 28: 100554.

ADEFARATI T, BANSAL R C.Reliability assessment of distribution system with the integration of renewable distributed generation[J]. Applied energy, 2017, 185: 158-171.

COLQUHOUN D, HAWKES A G.On the stochastic properties of bursts of single ion channel openings and of clusters of bursts[J]. Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London, Series B, Biological Sciences, 1982, 300(1098): 1-59.

LIU B L, WEN Y Q, QIU Q G, et al.Reliability analysis for multi-state systems under K-mixed redundancy strategy considering switching failure[J]. Reliability engineering & system safety, 2022, 228: 108814.

LIU B L, CUI L R, WEN Y Q, et al.A cold standby repairable system with working vacations and vacation interruption following Markovian arrival process[J]. Reliability engineering & system safety, 2015, 142: 1-8.

LIU B L, CUI L R, SI S B, et al.Performance measures for systems under multiple environments[J]. IEEE/CAA journal of automatica sinica, 2016, 3(1): 90-95.

温艳清, 刘宝亮, 师海燕, 等. G-混合冗余策略下多状态可修系统的可靠性[J]. 系统工程与电子技术, 2024, 46(7): 2383-2392.

YOUCEF ETTOUMI F, MEFTI A, ADANE A, et al.Statistical analysis of solar measurements in Algeria using beta distributions[J]. Renewable energy, 2002, 26(1): 47-67.

张娅琴, 徐政, 于海衡, 等. 实用多朝向太阳辐照度概率密度函数研究[J]. 太阳能学报, 2022, 43(11): 132-139.

KERSTING W H.Radial distribution test feeders[C]//2001 IEEE Power Engineering Society Winter Meeting,Conference Proceedings. Columbus, OH, USA, 2001: 908-912.

浏览量

下载量

CSCD

文章被引用时，请邮件提醒。

提交

工具集

关联资源

电网短路故障下双馈风电机组传动链扭振疲劳可靠性分析

基于风电机组可靠性的风电场平准化成本模型研究

考虑失效相关的风电齿轮传动系统动态可靠性研究