考虑风光出力不确定性的风光火储短期优化调度策略研究

王德军; 张秋生; 朱润泽; 张子涵; 秦翠涤

doi:10.19805/j.cnki.jcspe.2026.250090

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考虑风光出力不确定性的风光火储短期优化调度策略研究

新能源与储能 | 更新时间：2026-06-11

- 考虑风光出力不确定性的风光火储短期优化调度策略研究
- Research on Short-term Optimal Scheduling Strategy of Wind-PV- Thermal-BESS Considering Wind-PV Uncertainty
- 动力工程学报 2026年46卷第6期页码：70-80
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 国家能源集团新能源技术研究院有限公司,北京,102209
  2. 华北电力大学控制与计算机工程学院,北京,100096
- 作者简介：
  
  王德军(1969—),男,河北承德人,高级工程师,硕士,研究方向为综合能源技术。秦翠涤(通信作者),女,硕士研究生,E-mail:qin1234560216@163.com。
- 基金信息：
  
  国家能源集团2023年国家(地方政府)科技项目课题配套项目(Z211100004521007)
- DOI：10.19805/j.cnki.jcspe.2026.250090
  中图分类号： TM732
- 纸质出版：2026
- 稿件说明：
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王德军, 张秋生, 朱润泽, 张子涵, 秦翠涤. 考虑风光出力不确定性的风光火储短期优化调度策略研究[J]. 动力工程学报, 2026, 46(6): 70-80.
王德军, 张秋生, 朱润泽, 张子涵, 秦翠涤. 考虑风光出力不确定性的风光火储短期优化调度策略研究[J]. 动力工程学报, 2026, 46(6): 70-80. DOI： 10.19805/j.cnki.jcspe.2026.250090.

DOI： 10.19805/j.cnki.jcspe.2026.250090

摘要

随着新能源大规模并网需求日益增长

风电与光伏出力的波动性与不确定性给电力系统运行带来严峻挑战。针对现有多能互补调度策略中动态性不足、场景适应性差的问题

提出了一种基于滚动权重更新的风光火储短期优化调度策略。通过构建多场景加权目标函数

结合动态权重调整机制

实现火电运行成本最小化与风光消纳最大化的协同优化。基于风光火储能源基地的仿真结果表明:所提策略在风光火储系统优化调度时兼顾了经济性与稳定性

在风光正常、大发及小发出力场景下

弃风成本降低1.16%~75.52%

系统运行总成本降低0.02%~2.78%。

Abstract

With the increasing integration of renewable energy into power systems

the volatility and uncertainty of wind and photovoltaic (Wind-PV) outputs pose significant challenges to power system operation. To address the problems of insufficient dynamic adaptability and scenario responsiveness in existing multi-energy complementary scheduling strategies

a short-term optimal scheduling strategy for wind-photovoltaic-thermal-battery energy storage system (Wind-PV-Thermal-BESS) based on rolling weight updates was proposed. By constructing a multi-scenario weighted objective function and incorporating a dynamic weight adjustment mechanism

the model achieves coordinated optimization of minimizing thermal power generation costs and maximizing Wind-PV energy utilization. Simulation results based on an actual energy base show that the proposed strategy takes into account both economy and stability in the optimal scheduling of Wind-PV-Thermal-BESS. Under the normal output

high-output and low-output Wind-PV scenarios

the wind curtailment costs and the total system operating costs are decreased by 1.16%-75.52% and 0.02%-2.78% respectively.

关键词

Keywords

references

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