基于用户用能行为预测的柔性负荷优化调控方法研究

韩中合; 张晓雨; 宋寒; 韩少峰; 吴迪; 席昌远; 李桂强; 朱琳; 武书洲; 胡郁彬

doi:10.19805/j.cnki.jcspe.2026.240643

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基于用户用能行为预测的柔性负荷优化调控方法研究

综合能源系统 | 更新时间：2026-10-10

- 基于用户用能行为预测的柔性负荷优化调控方法研究
- Research on Optimal Regulation Method of Flexible Load Based on Users' Energy Consumption Behavior Prediction
- 动力工程学报 2026年46卷第1期页码：200-212
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 华北电力大学能源动力与机械工程学院,北京,102206
  2. 华北电力大学河北省低碳高效发电技术重点实验室,河北,保定,071003
  3. 中国科学技术大学热科学和能源工程系,安徽,合肥,230026
- 作者简介：
  
  韩中合(1964—),男,河北武邑人,教授,博士,主要从事能源动力工程领域的科学研究与教学工作
  吴迪(通信作者),男,山东潍坊人,副教授,博士,E-mail:wudi@ncepu.educn.
- 基金信息：
  
  河北省自然科学基金资助项目 (E2023502040);国家自然科学基金资助项目(52206247);国家重点研发计划资助项目 (2022YFE 0117200);安徽省自然科学基金资助项目(2108085UD03)
- DOI：10.19805/j.cnki.jcspe.2026.240643
  中图分类号：
- 网络首发：2026-01-15，
  
  纸质出版：2026-01-15
- 稿件说明：
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韩中合,张晓雨,宋寒,韩少峰,吴迪,席昌远,李桂强,朱琳,武书洲,胡郁彬. 基于用户用能行为预测的柔性负荷优化调控方法研究动力工程学报, 2026, 46(1): 200-212 https://doi.

org/10.19805/j.cnki.jcspe.2026.240643
韩中合,张晓雨,宋寒,韩少峰,吴迪,席昌远,李桂强,朱琳,武书洲,胡郁彬. 基于用户用能行为预测的柔性负荷优化调控方法研究动力工程学报, 2026, 46(1): 200-212 https://doi. DOI： 10.19805/j.cnki.jcspe.2026.240643.

org/10.19805/j.cnki.jcspe.2026.240643 DOI：

摘要

为提升综合能源系统及供能侧调度的灵活性

针对现有研究中未充分考虑用户行为主观性与随机性的问题

提出了一种结合用能行为预测与柔性负荷量化的综合能源系统供需两侧优化方法

以提升系统调度灵活性和响应能力。以夏季典型日为例的研究结果表明:相比柔性负荷未参与调度优化情况

电负荷波动率下降8.38%

系统总运行成本降低了约7.88%

可再生能源比例和一次能源利用率分别提高了13.4%和1.5%。所提方法在平抑负荷波动、降低系统运行成本、提升能源利用效率方面具有显著效果。

Abstract

To improve the flexibility of integrated energy systems and energy supply-side dispatching

and address the issue that existing studies have not fully considered the subjectivity and randomness of users' behaviors

an optimal method for both supply and demand sides of integrated energy systems

which combined energy consumption behavior prediction and flexible load quantification

was proposed to enhance the system's dispatching flexibility and responsiveness. Results based on a typical summer day show that compared with the scenario where flexible loads are not involved in dispatching optimization: the electric load fluctuation rate decreases by 8.38%; the total system operation cost reduces by approximately 7.88%; the proportion of renewable energy and primary energy utilization rate increase by 13.4% and 1.5%

respectively. The proposed method achieves significant effects in stabilizing load fluctuations

reducing system operation costs

and improving energy utilization efficiency.

关键词

Keywords

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