基于风险继承与动态剪枝的台风工况含风电并网系统连锁故障演化建模

高崧菀; 梁泽民; 柯毅明; 姚琦

doi:10.19805/j.cnki.jcspe.2025.250513

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基于风险继承与动态剪枝的台风工况含风电并网系统连锁故障演化建模

更新时间：2026-10-10

- 基于风险继承与动态剪枝的台风工况含风电并网系统连锁故障演化建模
- Modelling of Cascading Fault Evolution in Wind Power Integrated Systems Under Typhoon Conditions Based on Risk Inheritance and Dynamic Pruning
- 动力工程学报 2025年45卷第12期页码：2170-2179
- 作者机构：
  
  暨南大学能源电力研究中心,广东,珠海,519070
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  国家重点研发计划资助项目(2022YFB2403500);南方电网公司科技资助项目(GDKJXM20230245031700KC23020003)
- DOI：10.19805/j.cnki.jcspe.2025.250513
  中图分类号：
- 网络首发：2025-12-16，
  
  纸质出版：2025-12-16
- 稿件说明：
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高崧菀,梁泽民,柯毅明,姚琦. 基于风险继承与动态剪枝的台风工况含风电并网系统连锁故障演化建模动力工程学报, 2025, 45(12): 2170-2179 https://doi.

org/10.19805/j.cnki.jcspe.2025.250513
高崧菀,梁泽民,柯毅明,姚琦. 基于风险继承与动态剪枝的台风工况含风电并网系统连锁故障演化建模动力工程学报, 2025, 45(12): 2170-2179 https://doi. DOI： 10.19805/j.cnki.jcspe.2025.250513.

org/10.19805/j.cnki.jcspe.2025.250513 DOI：

摘要

针对电力系统连锁故障响应需求

在设备故障建模和概率潮流建模的基础上

提出一种台风天气下含风电并网系统的故障演化模型。首先构建时序风险继承机制

基于故障演化时序特征动态刻画各时段风险累积效应;进而设计动态剪枝策略

在演化中依据实时累积风险值动态识别并剔除低风险冗余路径;此外

引入分支隔离缓存机制存储中间状态

降低计算冗余。以改进IEEE39节点算例进行仿真验证

结果表明:构建的模型将连锁故障演化计算时间缩短至枚举法的12.52%

高风险路径覆盖率达到91.1%

有效平衡了高风险路径捕捉精度与计算效率

可以为系统连锁故障的早期预警与防御调度等提供可行的计算框架。

Abstract

To address the requirements for responding to cascading faults in power systems

a fault evolution model for wind power-integrated systems under typhoon conditions was proposed based on equipment fault modelling and probabilistic power flow modelling. Firstly

a time-series risk inheritance mechanism was constructed to dynamically characterize the risk accumulation effect in each time period according to the temporal characteristics of fault evolution. Furthermore

a dynamic pruning strategy was designed to dynamically identify and eliminate low-risk redundant paths based on real-time accumulated risk values during the evolution process. In addition

a branch isolation caching mechanism was introduced to store intermediate states and reduce computational redundancy. Simulation verification was conducted through using the modified IEEE 39-bus test system. Results show that the constructed model shortens the calculation time of cascading fault evolution to 12.52% of that of the enumeration method

with a high-risk path coverage rate of 91.1%. It effectively balances the capturing accuracy of high-risk paths and computational efficiency

and can provide a feasible computational framework for early warning and defensive dispatching of system cascading faults.

关键词

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