计及风电不确定性与尾部风险的孤岛微电网可靠性快速评估

岳大为; 李冰新; 柴园园; 刘浩然; 李益波

doi:10.19783/j.cnki.pspc.260347

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计及风电不确定性与尾部风险的孤岛微电网可靠性快速评估

应用研究 | 更新时间：2026-10-15

- 计及风电不确定性与尾部风险的孤岛微电网可靠性快速评估
- Fast reliability assessment of islanded microgrids considering wind power uncertainty and tail risk
- 电力系统保护与控制 2026年54卷第20期
- 作者机构：
  
  智能配用电装备与系统全国重点实验室(河北工业大学),天津,300401
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.19783/j.cnki.pspc.260347
  中图分类号：
- 纸质出版：2026
- 稿件说明：
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岳大为, 李冰新, 柴园园, 等. 计及风电不确定性与尾部风险的孤岛微电网可靠性快速评估[J]. 电力系统保护与控制, 2026,54(20).

YUE Dawei, LI Bingxin, CHAI Yuanyuan, et al. Fast reliability assessment of islanded microgrids considering wind power uncertainty and tail risk[J]. Power System Protection and Control, 2026, 54(20).
岳大为, 李冰新, 柴园园, 等. 计及风电不确定性与尾部风险的孤岛微电网可靠性快速评估[J]. 电力系统保护与控制, 2026,54(20). DOI： 10.19783/j.cnki.pspc.260347.

YUE Dawei, LI Bingxin, CHAI Yuanyuan, et al. Fast reliability assessment of islanded microgrids considering wind power uncertainty and tail risk[J]. Power System Protection and Control, 2026, 54(20). DOI： 10.19783/j.cnki.pspc.260347.

摘要

针对传统可靠性评估难以兼顾不确定性刻画、尾部风险度量与计算效率的问题，提出尾部风险可靠性快速评估框架。首先，基于实测数据构造小时级容量因子序列，结合“月-时”划分与共形校准，建立有限样本风电条件椭球不确定集，刻画风电波动范围。其次，以直流最优潮流最小切负荷模型为核心，引入条件风险价值(conditional value-at-risk

CVaR)构造尾部风险指标，并提出FAST-CVaR近似策略减少最优潮流(optimal power flow

OPF)调用。进而设计卷积神经网络(convolutional neural network

CNN)分类-回归代理模型，识别样本级尾部风险状态并预测强度，聚合估计可靠性指标。最后，在改进的RTS-GMLC区域1孤岛微电网算例中进行验证。结果表明，FAST-CVaR将OPF调用次数由60 000次减少至400次；CNN代理模型对两类可靠性尾部风险指标的估计相对误差分别为0.21%和0.51%，样本评估时间由743.504 s降至19.523 s。所提方法能够在保持尾部风险指标精度的同时显著降低计算开销，可为孤岛微电网尾部风险快速评估提供参考。

Abstract

To address the difficulty of balancing uncertainty representation

tail-risk evaluation

and computational efficiency in conventional reliability assessment

this paper develops a fast tail-risk reliability assessment framework. First

hourly capacity-factor series are constructed from measured data. By combining month-hour partitioning and conformal calibration

a conditional ellipsoidal uncertainty set for wind power under limited samples is established to characterize wind power fluctuations. Second

based on a DC optimal power flow (DC-OPF) minimum load shedding model

conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) is introduced to construct tail-risk indicators

and a FAST-CVaR approximation strategy is proposed to reduce the number of OPF evaluations. Furthermore

a convolutional neural network (CNN)-based classification-regression surrogate model is developed to identify sample-level tail-risk states and predict risk severity

enabling efficient estimation of reliability indicators through sample aggregation. Finally

the proposed method is validated on a modified RTS-GMLC Area 1 islanded microgrid. The results show that FAST-CVaR reduces the number of OPF evaluations from 60 000 to 400. The relative errors of the CNN surrogate model in estimating the two types of reliability tail-risk indicators are 0.21% and 0.51%

respectively

and the sample evaluation time is reduced from 743.504 s to 19.523 s. The proposed method can significantly reduce computational cost while maintaining the accuracy of tail-risk indicators

providing an effective approach for fast tail-risk reliability assessment of islanded microgrids.

关键词

Keywords

references

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ZHU J, XU Y, TAI N, et al. Day-ahead joint chance- constrained optimal scheduling for distribution networks using partial input convex neural networks[J]. IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, 2026, 17(1): 375-387.

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