YU Yongjin, JIAN Yilin, LIU Qi, et al. Short-term power load forecasting based on multi-scale parallel feature fusion and Kolmogorov-Arnold network reconstruction[J]. Power System Protection and Control, 2026, 54(12).
YU Yongjin, JIAN Yilin, LIU Qi, et al. Short-term power load forecasting based on multi-scale parallel feature fusion and Kolmogorov-Arnold network reconstruction[J]. Power System Protection and Control, 2026, 54(12).DOI: 10.19783/j.cnki.pspc.251388.
AGFM),通过学习时变权重系数,自适应调节不同时间步的特征关注度,实现了多尺度特征的精准融合。最后,引入 KAN 替代传统线性输出层,依托其可学习 B - 样条激活函数,实现了从高维融合特征到负荷数值的自适应非线性映射。算例分析表明,所提模型在多项评价指标上均优于现有主流模型,具有更高的预测精度,为电力系统规划和稳定运行提供了可靠的依据。
Abstract
Addressing the strong nonlinearity of short-term power loads and the deficits of insufficient feature interaction and linear reconstruction errors in traditional decomposition-ensemble models
this paper proposes a short-term load forecasting model based on multi-scale parallel feature fusion and Kolmogorov-Arnold network (KAN) reconstruction. First
a feature optimization and signal decomposition strategy combining Pearson correlation coefficient-maximal information coefficient (PCC-MIC) correlation analysis and variational mode decomposition (VMD) is established to filter redundant meteorological features and mitigate sequence non-stationarity. Second
a dual-channel architecture is designed for parallel extraction using Informer and temporal convolutional network (TCN). Then
an adaptive gated fusion mechanism (AGFM) learns time-varying weights to dynamically regulate feature attention of different time steps for precise multi-scale fusion. Finally
KAN is introduced to replace conventional linear output layers. Leveraging learnable B-spline activation functions
KAN enables adaptive nonlinear mapping from high-dimensional fused features to load values. Case studies demonstrate that the proposed model significantly outperforms mainstream baselines in prediction accuracy
offering a reliable reference for power system planning and stable operation.
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references
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