BAI Yunxiao, LIU Sijie, SUN Yi, et al. Identification and attribution of market power behaviors for intra-market supervision of electricity spot markets[J]. Power System Protection and Control, 2026, 54(18).
BAI Yunxiao, LIU Sijie, SUN Yi, et al. Identification and attribution of market power behaviors for intra-market supervision of electricity spot markets[J]. Power System Protection and Control, 2026, 54(18).DOI: 10.19783/j.cnki.pspc.251319.
To address the challenges of timely identification of abnormal market participants before electricity spot market clearing and quantitative attribution of the underlying causes of abnormal behaviors
a market power behavior identification and attribution method for intra-market supervision is proposed. First
a market power indicator system covering physical and economic behaviors and an indicator-behavior mapping relationship are established. Second
an isolation forest is used for unsupervised detection of multidimensional features
including bidding
quantity declaration
maintenance declaration
and energy storage state of charge
thereby obtaining anomaly scores and abnormal states for market participants. Then
a causal forest estimates the conditional average treatment effect of anomalous states on market outcomes
while CatBoost extracts the explanatory weights of individual indicators for the heterogeneity of these effects. Finally
typical market power behaviors are attributed through the indicator-behavior mapping relationship. Case studies using actual data from a regional electricity market in China show that the model can accurately identify various abnormal patterns
including physical withholding
economic withholding
and collusive behaviors
achieving high precision and recall. The proposed method can provide a basis for identifying abnormal market participants and analyzing the underlying causes of their behaviors for intra-market supervision of electricity spot markets.
关键词
Keywords
references
HESAMZADEH M R, BIGGAR D R, HOSSEINZADEH N. The TC-PSI indicator for forecasting the potential for market power in wholesale electricity markets[J]. Energy Policy, 2011, 39(10): 5988-5998.
DOLMATOVA M, KOZLOVSKIY D, KHRUSTALEVA O, et al. Market parameters dependent indices for competition evaluation in electricity market[J]. Electric Power Systems Research, 2021, 190.
TSAOUSOGLOU G, PATERAKIS N. Market mechanisms for local electricity markets: a review of models, solution concepts and algorithmic techniques[J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2022, 156.
李泓泽, 王宝, 郭森. 基于主成分分析的区域电力市场厂商市场力评估[J]. 现代电力, 2011, 28(3): 85-89. LI Hongze, WANG Bao, GUO Sen. Evaluation on market power of generation companies in regional electricity market based on principal component analysis[J]. Modern Electric Power, 2011, 28(3): 85-89.
LI Kexin, GUO Hongye, FENG Cheng, et al. Modeling strategic behaviors of renewable-storage system in low- inertia power system[J]. Protection and Control of Modern Power Systems, 2025, 10(5): 28-40.
ATHEY S, WAGER S. Estimating treatment effects with causal forests: an application[J]. Observational Studies, 2019, 5(2): 37-51.