基于现货市场电价预警的电力安全保供风险等级评估研究

赵会茹; 李子彧; 尤培培; 李骏龙; 张超; 刘思佳; 李成仁; 尹硕

doi:10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2024.0133

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基于现货市场电价预警的电力安全保供风险等级评估研究

电力市场 | 更新时间：2026-10-19

- 基于现货市场电价预警的电力安全保供风险等级评估研究
- Risk Level Assessment of Power Supply Safety Based on Spot Market Electricity Price Warning
- 现代电力 2026年43卷第5期页码：942-951
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 华北电力大学经济与管理学院, 北京市昌平区,102206
  2. 国网能源研究院有限公司, 北京市昌平区,102209
  3. 国网河南省电力公司经济技术研究院,河南省,郑州市,450052
- 作者简介：
  
  赵会茹(1963)，女，博士生导师，教授，研究方向为电力市场理论及应用技术等，E-mail：zhaohuiru@ncepu.edu.cn
  李子彧(2000)，男，硕士研究生，通信作者，研究方向为电力市场理论及应用技术等，E-mail：lzy04210228@163.com
  尤培培(1984)，女，硕士，高级经济师，研究方向为能源电力价格与市场，E-mail：youpeipei@sgeri.sgcc.com.cn
  李骏龙(1996)，男，博士，研究方向为能源电力价格与市场，E-mail：lijunlong@sgeri.sgcc.com.cn
  张超(1987)，男，博士，高级经济师，研究方向为能源电力价格与市场，E-mail：zhangchao@sgeri.sgcc.com.cn
  刘思佳(1985)，男，硕士，高级工程师，主要研究方向为能源电力价格与市场，E-mail：liusijia@sgeri.sgcc.com.cn
  李成仁(1969)，男，硕士，高级工程师，研究方向为能源电力价格与市场，E-mail：lichengren@sgeri.sgcc.com.cn
  尹硕(1985)，男，博士，高级经济师，研究方向为能源经济与电力经济技术，E-mail：yinshuo1111@163.com
- 基金信息：
  
  国家电网有限公司总部管理科技项目(促进电力安全保供的电价中短期预测、预警技术与应用研究(1400-202324332A-1-1-ZN))。
- DOI：10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2024.0133
  中图分类号： 5
- 纸质出版：2026
- 稿件说明：
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赵会茹, 李子彧, 尤培培, 等. 基于现货市场电价预警的电力安全保供风险等级评估研究[J]. 现代电力, 2026,43(5):942-951.

ZHAO Huiru, LI Ziyu, YOU Peipei, et al. Risk Level Assessment of Power Supply Safety Based on Spot Market Electricity Price Warning[J]. 2026, 43(5): 942-951.
赵会茹, 李子彧, 尤培培, 等. 基于现货市场电价预警的电力安全保供风险等级评估研究[J]. 现代电力, 2026,43(5):942-951. DOI： 10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2024.0133.

ZHAO Huiru, LI Ziyu, YOU Peipei, et al. Risk Level Assessment of Power Supply Safety Based on Spot Market Electricity Price Warning[J]. 2026, 43(5): 942-951. DOI： 10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2024.0133.

摘要

新能源并网给电网安全稳定运行带来了诸多挑战，电力安全保供形势愈发严峻。现货市场电价可动态直观地反映电力供需状况，为电力安全保供提供有效的引导。基于此，该文提出一种基于现货市场电价预测的电力安全保供预警等级评估技术。首先，提出一种基于现货电价预警的电力安全保供风险评估机制；其次，构建基于GARCHX-VaR技术的现货市场电价预警模型，并通过评定电价预警等级评估电力保供风险；最后，以我国某已开展电力现货市场试运行的省份为例开展算例仿真分析，结果表明所构建的预警模型可有效评估电力安全保供风险，为电力运营机构采取应对策略和措施提供有效支撑。

Abstract

The integration of new energy into the grid has posed numerous challenges to the safe and stable operation of the power grid

and the task of ensuring power security supply has become increasingly severe. Spot market electricity prices can dynamically and intuitively reflect the power supply and demand situation

providing an effective guide for power supply security. Based on this

we propose an early warning level evaluation scheme for power supply security based on spot market electricity price forecasting. Firstly

a power supply security risk assessment mechanism based on spot market electricity price forecasting is proposed. Secondly

a spot market electricity price forecasting model utilizing the GARCHX-VaR technique is constructed. Power supply security risk is subsequently evaluated by assessing the electricity price warning levels. Finally

case simulation analysis is performed using data from a province in China that has already initiated a pilot operation of the electricity spot market. The results demonstrate that the proposed warning model is capable of effectively assessing power supply security risks

thereby providing robust support for power operating institutions in adopting appropriate strategies and measures.

关键词

Keywords

references

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