考虑碳交易成本与预测不确定性的源荷储优化调度方法

凌云鹏; 周波; 徐楠; 郭占伍; 刘行; 李伟; 聂婧; 赵贤

doi:10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2024.0080

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考虑碳交易成本与预测不确定性的源荷储优化调度方法

智能电网 | 更新时间：2026-06-02

- 考虑碳交易成本与预测不确定性的源荷储优化调度方法
- An Optimal Scheduling Method for Source-load-storage Systems Considering Carbon Trading Cost and Forecast Uncertainty
- 现代电力 2026年43卷第3期页码：413-421
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 国网河北省电力有限公司经济技术研究院,河北省,石家庄市,050001
  2. 华北电力大学经济管理系,河北省,保定市,071000
- 作者简介：
  
  凌云鹏(1978)，男，硕士，高级工程师，研究方向为电力工程造价，E-mail：jyy_lingyp@he.sgcc.com.cn
  周波(1990)，男，硕士，工程师，研究方向为电力技术经济，E-mail：jyy_zhoub@he.sgcc.com.cn
  徐楠 (1981)，女，硕士，高级经济师，研究方向为电力技术经济，E-mail：jyy_xun1@he.sgcc.com.cn
  郭占伍 (1968)，男，硕士，高级工程师，研究方向为电力系统及其自动化，E-mail：jyy_guozw@he.sgcc.com.cn
  刘行 (1998)，男，硕士研究生，通信作者，研究方向为电力技术经济，E-mail：liuxing1998@ncepu.edu.cn
  李伟(1968)，男，博士，教授，研究方向为电力技术经济，E-mail：ncepulw@126.com
  聂婧(1991)，女，硕士，工程师，研究方向为技术经济，E-mail：jyy_niej@he.sgcc.com.cn
  赵贤(1983)，女，硕士，高级工程师，研究方向为工程造价，E-mail：jyy_zhaox@he.sgcc.com.cn
- 基金信息：
  
  国网河北省电力有限公司科技项目(5204JY-22000L)。
- DOI：10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2024.0080
  中图分类号： 3
- 纸质出版：2026
- 稿件说明：
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凌云鹏, 周波, 徐楠, 等. 考虑碳交易成本与预测不确定性的源荷储优化调度方法[J]. 现代电力, 2026,43(3):413-421.

LING Yunpeng, ZHOU Bo, XU Nan, et al. An Optimal Scheduling Method for Source-load-storage Systems Considering Carbon Trading Cost and Forecast Uncertainty[J]. 2026, 43(3): 413-421.
凌云鹏, 周波, 徐楠, 等. 考虑碳交易成本与预测不确定性的源荷储优化调度方法[J]. 现代电力, 2026,43(3):413-421. DOI： 10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2024.0080.

LING Yunpeng, ZHOU Bo, XU Nan, et al. An Optimal Scheduling Method for Source-load-storage Systems Considering Carbon Trading Cost and Forecast Uncertainty[J]. 2026, 43(3): 413-421. DOI： 10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2024.0080.

摘要

目前，新能源发展迅速，各地中远期能源电力规划已经或即将出台。为使未来源–储资源具体建设与负荷需求相协调，提高新能源消纳率，降低运行成本，充分结合不同时间尺度下电力资源规划目标与未来负荷需求预测，构建一种以系统总运行成本最低为目标、引入模糊机会约束的调度模型。针对规划资源，进行源–荷–储资源协调运行仿真，以2025年和2030年为中、长期时间节点，从置信度设置和多场景资源配置方案两个维度分别进行分析。对不同方案进行模拟运行，从而确定了地区电网降本增效的关键因素。研究发现，该模型可作为未来设置备用容量等指标的有效参考。从经济性与绿色低碳目标角度考虑，可适当控制风光投产规模以实现二者平衡。此外，模型从风、光、水、火、储等方面提出了具体的配置建议，可为各地提供参考。

Abstract

Currently

the new energy is developing rapidly. Medium- and long-term energy and power plans have either been introduced or are expected to be implemented in various places. These plans aim to coordinate the specific construction of the undeveloped source-storage resources with the load demand

improve the new energy consumption rate

and reduce operating costs. Fully combined with various time scales under the power resources planning objectives and future load demand forecasts

a system is developed with the objective of minimizing the total operating costs by introducing fuzzy chance constraints. For planning resources

the coordinated operation of source-load-storage resources is simulated. Taking 2025 and 2030 as the medium- to long-term time nodes

the analysis is conducted from two aspects: the confidence setting and multi-scenarios of the resource allocation scheme. The main study reveals that the model can serve as an effective reference tool for setting the future standby capacity and other indicators. From the perspective of economy and green low-carbon goals

the scale of wind power put into operation should be controlled properly to achieve a balance between economy and green. Our study provides valuable configuration reference from the perspectives of hydropower

thermal power

wind power

and storage power for various regions.

关键词

Keywords

references

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