EN基于多类型天气识别的光伏功率日前预测
Day-ahead Prediction of Photovoltaic Power Generation Based on Multi-type Weather Identification
- 现代电力 2026年43卷第2期 页码：253-264
- 作者机构：
1. 上海电力大学 电气工程学院, 上海市 杨浦区,200090
2. 国网上海市电力公司电科院, 上海市 虹口区,200092
- 作者简介：
[ "杨秀(1972)，男，博士，教授，研究方向为大数据与人工智能在电力系统中应用、分布式能源与微网控制与调度，E-mail：yangxiu721102@126.com" ]
[ "闫钟宇(1997)，女，硕士研究生，研究方向为光伏发电技术，E-mail：yanzhongyux@163.com" ]
[ "孙改平(1984)，女，硕士，讲师，通信作者，研究方向为大数据及人工智能在配电网中的应用，E-mail：gaiping_sun@shiep.edu.cn" ]
[ "熊雪君(1991)，女，硕士，研究方向为电力系统稳定性与新型电力系统建模与仿真，E-mail：1061526290@qq.com" ]
[ "冯煜尧(1983)，男，硕士，研究方向为电力系统运行与控制，E-mail：13681916812@163.com" ]
- 基金信息：
DOI：10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2024.0007
中图分类号： 2-
纸质出版：2026
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
杨秀, 闫钟宇, 孙改平, 等. 基于多类型天气识别的光伏功率日前预测[J]. 现代电力, 2026,43(2):253-264.
YANG Xiu, YAN Zhongyu, SUN Gaiping, et al. Day-ahead Prediction of Photovoltaic Power Generation Based on Multi-type Weather Identification[J]. 2026, 43(2): 253-264.
杨秀, 闫钟宇, 孙改平, 等. 基于多类型天气识别的光伏功率日前预测[J]. 现代电力, 2026,43(2):253-264. DOI： 10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2024.0007.
YANG Xiu, YAN Zhongyu, SUN Gaiping, et al. Day-ahead Prediction of Photovoltaic Power Generation Based on Multi-type Weather Identification[J]. 2026, 43(2): 253-264. DOI： 10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2024.0007.
摘要
针对光伏出力在转折性天气下短时间内功率发生剧烈波动导致预测精度降低的问题，提出一种基于多类型天气识别的光伏功率日前预测方法。对于天气识别，提出一种多层划分的新型模型。首先，采用天气状态指数反映气象特征；其次，利用高斯混合模型，聚类提取功率波动特征；最后，基于概念漂移算法将二者交叉，区分出转折天气日与4种平稳天气日，提升天气类型识别的精细度。对于功率预测，提出一种基于分位数回归的区间预测模型。首先，根据传递熵分别选择5种天气类型显著的气象特征，充分考虑天气模式的特异性；其次，提高模型的泛化能力，将多层感知器神经网络、卷积神经网络、双向长短期记忆神经网络模块化集成；然后，结合神经网络分位数回归模型生成预测区间；最后，采用中国上海地区一光伏电场数据，以验证所提模型在点预测、区间预测上的有效性。
Abstract
In response to the issue of the drastic fluctuation in PV power output in a short period of time under transitional weather
which will result in lower prediction accuracy
a PV power day-ahead prediction method is proposed based on multi-type weather identification. A new model with multi-layer division is proposed for weather identification. Firstly
the weather state index is utilized to reflect the weather characteristics. Secondly
a Gaussian mixture model is employed to extract the power fluctuation characteristics in clustering way. Finally
these two models are crossed and combined based on the concept drift algorithm
so as to distinguish the turning weather days and four kinds of smooth weather days for improving the weather type identification precision. Meanwhile
an interval prediction model based on quantile regression is proposed for power prediction. Firstly
the significant meteorological features of the five weather types are selected according to the transfer entropy respectively
taking into full consideration the specificity of weather patterns. Subsequently
to enhance the model’s generalization ability
the multilayer perceptron neural network
convolutional neural network
and bidirectional long- and short-term memory neural network are modularly integrated. Finally
the neural network quantile regression model is combined and the prediction interval is generated. The effectiveness of the proposed model in point prediction and interval prediction is verified using the data collected from a photovoltaic field located in Shanghai
China.
关键词
Keywords
references
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