计及用户不确定性的温控负荷集群可调节潜力概率评估与互动

赵龙; 孙毅; 王宪; 刘晓明; 孙东磊

doi:10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2023.0221

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计及用户不确定性的温控负荷集群可调节潜力概率评估与互动

能源互联网 | 更新时间：2025-10-22

- 计及用户不确定性的温控负荷集群可调节潜力概率评估与互动
- Probabilistic Assessment and Interaction for Adjustable Potential of Thermostatically Controlled Loads Considering User Uncertainty
- 现代电力 2025年42卷第5期页码：978-986
- 作者机构：
  
  国网山东省电力公司经济技术研究院,山东省,济南市,250021
- 作者简介：
  
  [ "赵龙(1977)，男，硕士，教授级高级工程师，通信作者，研究方向为电力系统规划技术，E-mail：longyd2018@163.com" ]
  [ "孙毅(1991)，男，硕士，工程师，研究方向为新能源接入电力系统规划技术，E-mail：442028471@qq.com" ]
  [ "王宪(1992)，女，硕士，工程师，研究方向为电力系统规划技术研究，E-mail：stillalice0@qq.com" ]
  [ "刘晓明(1984)，男，硕士，高级工程师，研究方向为电力系统规划技术，E-mail：416582710@qq.com" ]
  [ "孙东磊(1988)，男，博士，高级工程师，研究方向为电力系统规划技术，E-mail：sdusdlei@sina.com" ]
- 基金信息：
  
  国网山东省电力公司科技项目(考虑用户侧源荷储资源聚合与互动模式的配电网优化规划技术(52062522000K))。
- DOI：10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2023.0221
  中图分类号： 5
- 纸质出版：2025
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
赵龙, 孙毅, 王宪, 等. 计及用户不确定性的温控负荷集群可调节潜力概率评估与互动[J]. 现代电力, 2025,42(5):978-986.

ZHAO Long, SUN Yi, WANG Xian, et al. Probabilistic Assessment and Interaction for Adjustable Potential of Thermostatically Controlled Loads Considering User Uncertainty[J]. 2025, 42(5): 978-986.
赵龙, 孙毅, 王宪, 等. 计及用户不确定性的温控负荷集群可调节潜力概率评估与互动[J]. 现代电力, 2025,42(5):978-986. DOI： 10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2023.0221.

ZHAO Long, SUN Yi, WANG Xian, et al. Probabilistic Assessment and Interaction for Adjustable Potential of Thermostatically Controlled Loads Considering User Uncertainty[J]. 2025, 42(5): 978-986. DOI： 10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2023.0221.

摘要

准确评估空调温控负荷集群的可调潜力并加以利用，可实现光伏等新能源波动平抑，维持电网安全稳定运行。针对目前研究存在的模型驱动方法的模型参数泛化、数据驱动方法的物理概念弱化和鲁棒性较差等问题，提出一种计及不确定性的温控负荷集群可调节潜力概率评估方法。首先，开展基于模型与数据混合驱动的温控负荷集群建模，实现日内温控集群实际负荷曲线的跟踪。然后，在考虑实际空调所处建筑物参数不可测和用户用电行为不确定两方面，基于KL散度验证所提方法的鲁棒性。最后，基于混合驱动模型建立空调负荷集群响应能力的概率评估与互动机制，以山东某地区10 kV馈线为实际算例，结果表明所提方法能够有效抑制潮流返送现象，实现分布式光伏的完全就地消纳。

Abstract

Accurate evaluation on the adjustable potential of air conditioner thermostatically controlled load cluster and its utilization can mitigate fluctuations in new energy such as photovoltaics

and it is of great significance in maintaining the safe and stable operation of power grids. Aiming to address the challenges related to model parameter generalization

physical concept weakening and poor robustness of data-driven methods

a probabilistic assessment method is proposed for the adjustable potential of thermostatically controlled load cluster

taking uncertainties into account. Firstly

the thermostatically controlled load cluster modeling based on hybrid model and data is utilized to track the actual load curve of the thermostatically controlled cluster in a day. Then

the robustness of the proposed method is validated based on KL divergence

considering the unmeasured building parameters and the uncertain user consumption behavior. Finally

the probabilistic assessment and interaction mechanism of the response capacity of the air conditioner load cluster are established based on the hybrid-driven model

taking a 10kV feeder line in Shandong Province as a practical instance. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in mitigating the power flow backflow and realizing the complete local consumption of distributed PV.

关键词

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references

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