EN面向碳达峰的中国能源系统转型路径及其异质性分析
面向碳达峰的中国能源系统转型路径及其异质性分析
- 全球能源互联网 2025年8卷第5期 页码：530-541
- 作者机构：
1. 西南石油大学经济管理学院
2. 油气藏地质及开发工程全国重点实验室(西南石油大学)
3. 西南石油大学土木工程与测绘学院
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：国家社会科学基金西部项目(“双碳”目标下我国城市群能源系统碳达峰预测及差异化减排路径研究，22XGL019);国家社会科学基金重大项目(能源革命驱动下的天然气产业高质量发展路径研究，22&ZD105);四川省哲学社会科学重点研究基地学术研究专项资助(新质生产力赋能四川天然气产业高质量发展的作用机理及政策建议，SC24E091);成都市哲学社会科学规划项目(面向深度脱碳的成都新型能源体系构建研究，2024BS072)~~
DOI：10.19705/j.cnki.issn2096-5125.20250036
中图分类号： F426.2;F426.61-
纸质出版：2025
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
李乔楚, 罗平亚, 张鹏, 等. 面向碳达峰的中国能源系统转型路径及其异质性分析[J]. 全球能源互联网, 2025,8(5):530-541.
李乔楚, 罗平亚, 张鹏, et al. 面向碳达峰的中国能源系统转型路径及其异质性分析[J]. 2025, 8(5): 530-541.
李乔楚, 罗平亚, 张鹏, 等. 面向碳达峰的中国能源系统转型路径及其异质性分析[J]. 全球能源互联网, 2025,8(5):530-541. DOI： 10.19705/j.cnki.issn2096-5125.20250036.
李乔楚, 罗平亚, 张鹏, et al. 面向碳达峰的中国能源系统转型路径及其异质性分析[J]. 2025, 8(5): 530-541. DOI： 10.19705/j.cnki.issn2096-5125.20250036.
摘要
科学设计中国能源系统低碳转型的多元路径并把握其异质性，对实现碳达峰目标有重要参考价值。基于EnergyPLAN模型构建统筹电力、热力、工业、交通4大部门的能源系统，通过仿真模拟研判系统转型的季节异质性、部门异质性和成本异质性，得出以下结论。①冬季在大陆气团、低温、日照等综合影响下风电占比最大、水电次之、太阳能发电最小；夏季进入丰水期且太阳能丰沛，但可能诱发过剩电力生产；春季锅炉供热和热电联产逐步被燃煤电厂替代。核电由于资源消耗小、供能稳定等优势故得以发展，而生物质能和地热能由于资源分散、收集运输困难故出力贡献有待提升。②电力部门是转型工作“排头兵”。热力部门煤炭消费占据主导，作为过渡能源的天然气占比呈上升态势，合理引入生物质能有利于碳减排。电炉钢等技术推广有助于破解工业部门转型瓶颈。交通部门转型重点为以节能促降碳。③由于碳达峰阶段煤炭等在能源保供中的“压舱石”作用，故燃料成本占比最大。基准路径下碳排放成本次之，而低碳和强化低碳路径由于转型成本提升故投资成本次之。强化低碳路径下碳排放成本最小，这得益于跨部门能源协同消纳和碳捕集技术的探索应用。
Abstract
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