1. 广东电网有限责任公司电网规划研究中心
2. 南方电网能源发展研究院
3. 北京大学长沙计算与数字经济研究院
4. 北京大学工学院
5. 中国人民大学生态环境学院
纸质出版:2025
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李峰, 张舒涵, 邵天铭, 等. 碳中和导向下中国生物质能消费分析[J]. 全球能源互联网, 2025,8(2):192-200.
李峰, 张舒涵, 邵天铭, 等. 碳中和导向下中国生物质能消费分析[J]. 全球能源互联网, 2025,8(2):192-200. DOI: 10.19705/j.cnki.issn2096-5125.2025.02.007.
生物质能替代化石燃料是减少碳排放的有效途径,而生物质能配备碳捕集与封存(bioenergy with carbon capture and storage
BECCS)技术更是实现碳中和的关键支撑技术。利用本土化改进中国能源系统的全球变化分析模型(Global Change Analysis Model
GCAM),详细考虑生物质能在中国各能源部门的应用,模拟分析碳中和导向下未来中国生物质能消费。情景结果表明:(1)柴等传统生物质在2030年后基本完全退出使用,现代生物质能在2030年后开始迅速发展,到2060年,生物质能占中国一次能源消费15%;(2)未来,中国生物质能呈现发电和炼油为主导的多元化发展趋势,到2060年,发电和炼油共占中国生物质能消费近80%,生物质发电占全国总发电量6%,生物燃油占全国液体燃料总产量42%;(3)中国生物质能需要大幅配备碳捕集与封存(carbon capture and storage
CCS)技术,到2060年,86%的生物质在应用过程中配备CCS
BECCS年捕集量达15亿t CO2。
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郑丁乾,常世彦,蔡闻佳,杨方,张士宁.温升2 ℃/1.5 ℃情景下世界主要区域BECCS发展潜力评估分析[J].全球能源互联网,2020(04).
常世彦,郑丁乾,付萌.2℃/1.5℃温控目标下生物质能结合碳捕集与封存技术(BECCS)[J].全球能源互联网,2019(03).
Da Zhang,Ziheng Zhu,Shi Chen,Chongyu Zhang,Xi Lu,Xiliang Zhang,Xiaoye Zhang,Michael R Davidson.Spatially resolved land and grid model of carbon neutrality in China.[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2024.
Shao Tianming,Peng Tianduo,Zhu Lijing,Lu Ye,Wang Lining,Pan Xunzhang.China's transportation decarbonization in the context of carbon neutrality: A segment-mode analysis using integrated modelling[J].Environmental Impact Assessment Review,2024.
Pan Xunzhang,Ma Xueqing,Zhang Yanru,Shao Tianming,Peng Tianduo,Li Xiang,Wang Lining,Chen Wenying.Implications of carbon neutrality for power sector investments and stranded coal assets in China[J].Energy Economics,2023.
Shao Tianming,Pan Xunzhang,Li Xiang,Zhou Sheng,Zhang Shu,Chen Wenying.China's industrial decarbonization in the context of carbon neutrality: A sub-sectoral analysis based on integrated modelling[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2022.
Qiu Yang,Lamers Patrick,Daioglou Vassilis,McQueen Noah,de Boer Harmen Sytze,Harmsen Mathijs,Wilcox Jennifer,Bardow André,Suh Sangwon.Environmental trade-offs of direct air capture technologies in climate change mitigation toward 2100[J].Nature Communications,2022.
Zhuo Zhenyu,Du Ershun,Zhang Ning,Nielsen Chris P,Lu Xi,Xiao Jinyu,Wu Jiawei,Kang Chongqing.Cost increase in the electricity supply to achieve carbon neutrality in China.[J].Nature communications,2022(1).
Zhang Shu,Chen Wenying.Assessing the energy transition in China towards carbon neutrality with a probabilistic framework[J].Nature Communications,2022.
Mandley Steven,Wicke Birka,Junginger H.,Vuuren Detlef,Daioglou Vassilis.Integrated assessment of the role of bioenergy within the EU energy transition targets to 2050[J].GCB Bioenergy,2021.
Fuhrman Jay,Clarens Andres,Calvin Katherine,Doney Scott C,Edmonds James A,O’Rourke Patrick,Patel Pralit,Pradhan Shreekar,Shobe William,McJeon Haewon.The role of direct air capture and negative emissions technologies in the shared socioeconomic pathways towards +1.5 °C and +2 °C futures[J].Environmental Research Letters,2021.
Zhao Guangpu,Yu Biying,An Runying,Wu Yun,Zhao Zihao.Energy system transformations and carbon emission mitigation for China to achieve global 2 °C climate target[J].Journal of Environmental Management,2021.
Mo Jianlei,Zhang Weirong,Tu Qiang,Yuan Jiahai,Duan Hongbo,Fan Ying,Pan Jiaofeng,Zhang Jian,Meng Zhixu.The role of national carbon pricing in phasing out China's coal power[J].iScience,2021.
Weng Yuwei,Cai Wenjia,Wang Can.Evaluating the use of BECCS and afforestation under China’s carbon-neutral target for 2060[J].Applied Energy,2021.
Xing Xiaofan,Wang Rong,Bauer Nico,Ciais Philippe,Cao Junji,Chen Jianmin,Tang Xu,Wang Lin,Yang Xin,Boucher Olivier,Goll Daniel,Peñuelas Josep,Janssens Ivan A,Balkanski Yves,Clark James,Ma Jianmin,Pan Bo,Zhang Shicheng,Ye Xingnan,Wang Yutao,Li Qing,Luo Gang,Shen Guofeng,Li Wei,Yang Yechen,Xu Siqing.Spatially explicit analysis identifies significant potential for bioenergy with carbon capture and storage in China.[J].Nature communications,2021.
Cui Ryna Yiyun,Hultman Nathan,Cui Diyang,McJeon Haewon,Yu Sha,Edwards Morgan R.,Sen Arijit,Song Kaihui,Bowman Christina,Clarke Leon,Kang Junjie,Lou Jiehong,Yang Fuqiang,Yuan Jiahai,Zhang Weirong,Zhu Mengye.A plant-by-plant strategy for high-ambition coal power phaseout in China[J].Nature Communications,2021.
He Gang,Lin Jiang,Zhang Ying,Zhang Wenhua,Larangeira Guilherme,Zhang Chao,Peng Wei,Liu Manzhi,Yang Fuqiang.Enabling a Rapid and Just Transition away from Coal in China[J].One Earth,2020.
Kang Yating,Yang Qing,Bartocci Pietro,Wei Hongjian,Liu Sylvia Shuhan,Wu Zhujuan,Zhou Hewen,Yang Haiping,Fantozzi Francesco,Chen Hanping.Bioenergy in China: Evaluation of domestic biomass resources and the associated greenhouse gas mitigation potentials[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2020.
Xiaodan Huang,Shiyan Chang,Dingqian Zheng,Xiliang Zhang.The role of BECCS in deep decarbonization of China's economy: A computable general equilibrium analysis[J].Energy Economics,2020.
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Ji Gao,Aiping Zhang,Shu Kee Lam,Xuesong Zhang,Allison M. Thomson,Erda Lin,Kejun Jiang,Leon E. Clarke,James A. Edmonds,Page G. Kyle,Sha Yu,Yuyu Zhou,Sheng Zhou.An integrated assessment of the potential of agricultural and forestry residues for energy production in China[J].GCB Bioenergy,2016.
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