1. 新能源电力系统全国重点实验室(华北电力大学)
2. 华北电力大学控制与计算机工程学院
纸质出版:2026
移动端阅览
申珊珊, 胡阳, 王继恒, 等. 大型风电机组多点特征风速选择及估计[J]. 热力发电, 2026,(5).
申珊珊, 胡阳, 王继恒, et al. 大型风电机组多点特征风速选择及估计[J]. Thermal Power Generation, 2026, (5).
申珊珊, 胡阳, 王继恒, 等. 大型风电机组多点特征风速选择及估计[J]. 热力发电, 2026,(5). DOI: 10.19666/j.rlfd.202510030.
申珊珊, 胡阳, 王继恒, et al. 大型风电机组多点特征风速选择及估计[J]. Thermal Power Generation, 2026, (5). DOI: 10.19666/j.rlfd.202510030.
【目的】针对大型风电机组容量增大、机组叶片半径急剧增加、机前入流风速场分布及垂直风切变效应更为复杂,轮毂高度处单点有效风速难以充分表征入流风况的问题,提出了一种大型风电机组多点特征风速选择及估计方法。【方法】首先,基于机前入流风速场网格数据,提出随机森林结合Boruta(RF-Boruta)分步算法,实现超大风轮扫掠面内特征风速格点的稳定筛选;然后,引入混合多变量长短时记忆(x LSTM-Mixer)神经网络算法,结合计及输入-输出延迟阶次的嵌入式特征工程策略,构建机组动力学特性驱动的多点特征风速超短期多步动态估计模型;最后,在SOWFA平台完成10 MW风电机组大涡模拟及IEC标准下全风速范围内7种风况的数值仿真与流场数据采集,对所提方法进行验证。【结果】结果表明:筛选得到含轮毂中心在内的4个代表性特征风速点(半径50~60 m、120°角度间隔布置),x LSTM-Mixer模型对多点风速的当前时刻滤波及未来80步超前预测相对误差均≤2.8%,实现秒级高精度估计,科尔莫戈罗夫-斯米尔诺夫(KS)统计量≤0.2,结构相似性指数(SSIM)≥0.96,相较于传统LSTM、Transformer模型,精确度提升约10%,且在分布匹配与结构捕捉能力上优势显著。【结论】该方法突破了单点风速表征的局限性,为风功率预测、机组运行控制及发电量评估提供了可靠技术支撑。
[Objective] With the continuous development of the wind power industry toward high power and large capacity
the soaring unit capacity and expanding blade radius of large-scale wind turbines have resulted in increasingly complex spatial distributions of the inflow wind field in front of the turbine and significantly enhanced vertical wind shear effects. The conventional method of characterizing wind conditions using single-point wind speed at hub height can no longer fully reflect the wind speed distribution differences and dynamic patterns within the ultra-large rotor swept area
which is prone to causing issues such as wind power prediction deviations and inadequate adaptability of operation control strategies. To address these challenges
this study proposes a multipoint feature wind speed selection and estimation method for large-scale wind turbines
which can accurately capture key wind speed information in the rotor swept area
overcome the limitations of single-point feature wind speed
and provide data support for the optimal operation of wind turbines. [Methods] To achieve the aforementioned research objective
this study adopts a step-by-step technical approach for systematic investigation. Firstly
based on high-precision grid data of the inflow wind field in front of the turbine
a two-stage stepwise feature selection algorithm is proposed
which first carries out preliminary selection with random forest and then implements refined selection via Boruta(RF-Boruta). The Boruta algorithm is employed to conduct significance tests on the feature importance scores output by the random forest model
thereby eliminating redundant and irrelevant wind speed grid points and realizing stable and accurate selection of feature wind speed points within the ultra-large rotor swept area. Secondly
for the selected feature wind speed points
the extended long short-term memory neural network(xLSTM-Mixer) algorithm is introduced
combined with an embedded feature engineering strategy that accounts for input-output delay orders. This strategy fully exploits the temporal correlation and spatial correlation of wind speed sequences
and constructs a unit dynamics-driven ultra-short-term multi-step dynamic estimation model for multi-point feature wind speed points. Finally
to verify the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method
large eddy simulation(LES) of a 10 MW wind turbine is performed on the SOWFA platform. Meanwhile
7 typical wind conditions covering the full wind speed range specified in the IEC standards(including complex wind conditions such as shear wind and turbulent wind) are configured for numerical simulation and flow field data collection. The feature selection performance and speed estimation accuracy of the proposed method are comprehensively validated based on the collected high-fidelity data. [Results] The numerical simulation and verification results demonstrate that four representative feature wind speed points
including the hub center
are identified via the RF-Boruta stepwise algorithm. These feature points are arranged at a radius of 50~60 m with an angular interval of 120°
which can effectively cover the key regions of the rotor swept area and fully characterize the spatial distribution features of the inflow wind field. The constructed xLSTM-Mixer model exhibits excellent performance in the multi-point feature wind speed estimation task: the relative error of 80-step-ahead(second-level) prediction for multi-point wind speeds is ≤2.8%
achieving second-level high-precision estimation. Statistical characteristic analysis shows that the Kolmogorov-Smirnov(KS) statistic between the model estimation results and the actual wind speed data is ≤0.2
and the structural similarity index(SSIM) is ≥0.96
indicating a high degree of consistency in both distribution characteristics and structural features between the two datasets. Comparative experiments with mainstream time-series prediction models such as the conventional LSTM and Transformer reveal that the estimation accuracy of the xLSTM-Mixer model is improved by approximately 10%
with distinct advantages in wind speed distribution matching and spatial structure capture capabilities. [Conclusion] The multipoint feature wind speed selection and estimation method proposed in this study effectively breaks through the limitations of conventional single-point feature wind speed
realizing accurate selection and efficient estimation of key wind speed information within the ultra-large rotor swept area. The high-precision multi-point wind speed data provided by this method can reliably support wind power prediction
operation control optimization
and power generation evaluation of wind turbines
helping to enhance the operational stability and energy utilization efficiency of wind turbines. It holds important theoretical significance and engineering application value for promoting the high-quality development of the wind power industry.
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