ZHENG Zhitong, TAO Hai, REN Songyan, et al. Simulation study on carbon neutrality technology path in Guangdong power industry based on GD-Enduse model[J]. Thermal power generation, 2025, 54(1): 120-131.
ZHENG Zhitong, TAO Hai, REN Songyan, et al. Simulation study on carbon neutrality technology path in Guangdong power industry based on GD-Enduse model[J]. Thermal power generation, 2025, 54(1): 120-131. DOI: 10.19666/j.rlfd.202404107.
Carbon neutrality of Guangdong power industry is the premise and important way to achieve the overall carbon neutrality goal. Based on GD-Enduse model
with the overall goal of minimizing the cost of power system
this paper describes three carbon neutral technology paths of Guangdong power and carries out quantitative and qualitative analysis. The results show that scenario CM3 is the optimal carbon neutral technology path
and its installed capacity of renewable energy will reach 60.2% and power generation will account for 51.9%. Nuclear power will grow steadily
generating 25.0% of its electricity. The continuous decommissioning of thermal power units will reduce the number of hours of utilization of retained installed capacity and be reserved for flexible peak-trimming power supply. The carbon capture
utilization and storage(CCUS) ratio of coal and gas power will decrease to 24.0% and 44.0% respectively
while the CCUS ratio of biomass will continue to rise to 81.8%. Therefore
carbon neutrality in Guangdong's power industry requires the large-scale intervention of CCUS technology and the rapid development of renewable energy technologies led by wind power and photovoltaic.Based on “wind
light
nuclear and storage”
employing the power structure that thermal power is used as flexible peaking power supply
and various power generation technologies and negative carbon technologies flexibly adjust complementary shortboards
can achieve the coordinated development of various types of power supplies.