WANG Hui, ZOU Zhichao, LI Xin, et al. Short-term wind power prediction based on VMD-ISSA-GRU comprehensive model[J]. Thermal power generation, 2024, 53(5): 122-131.
WANG Hui, ZOU Zhichao, LI Xin, et al. Short-term wind power prediction based on VMD-ISSA-GRU comprehensive model[J]. Thermal power generation, 2024, 53(5): 122-131. DOI: 10.19666/j.rlfd.202312189.
In order to solve the problem of low accuracy of wind power prediction caused by wind speed uncertainty and volatility
this paper proposes a VMD-ISSA-GRU combination model based on variational mode decomposition(VMD)
improved sparrow search algorithm(ISSA) and gated recurrent neural network(GRU).Firstly
the center frequency method is used to determine the number of modal components after VMD decomposition
which can effectively avoid over-decomposition or insufficient decomposition. Then
chaotic mapping
nonlinear decreasing weights and a mutation strategy are introduced to improve the sparrow search algorithm to optimize the gated recurrent neural network
and then an ISSA-GRU prediction model is established for each decomposed subsequence. Finally
the predicted value of each subseries is superimposed and the final predicted value is obtained. The experimental results show that
the mean absolute error
mean absolute percentage error and root mean square error of the VMD-ISSA-GRU model are 1.211 8
1.890 0 and 1.591 6 MW
respectively. Compared with the conventional GRU
long short-term memory(LSTM) neural network
Bi-directional LSTM(BiLSTM) neural network model and other combination models
the prediction accuracy has been significantly improved
which can solve the problem of low prediction accuracy of wind power.