GAN Yan, HE Jingxuan, ZOU Jianming, et al. Joint probabilistic risk assessment of wind power transformer connected to distribution networks considering source-load correlation[J]. Thermal power generation, 2023, 52(9): 162-170.
GAN Yan, HE Jingxuan, ZOU Jianming, et al. Joint probabilistic risk assessment of wind power transformer connected to distribution networks considering source-load correlation[J]. Thermal power generation, 2023, 52(9): 162-170. DOI: 10.19666/j.rlfd.202212233.
With the increasing penetration of new energy in new power system
the influence of the uncertainty of wind power output and the correlation with load on the system operation is increasingly prominent. Thus
the conventional transformer risk assessment can no longer meet the demand. Based on Copula model and Susa model
a joint probability assessment method of transformer operation risk considering wind power and load correlation is proposed. Monte Carlo method is used to calculate each risk index value and evaluate transformer operation risk.The research results show that
the conventional transformer evaluation system that does not consider the wind-load correlation will lead to a low overall risk assessment result
with the maximum error of the index up to 55.02%.Also
with the increase of wind-load correlation
the risk of thermal defects of the transformer is increasing. The research conclusions can assist to improve the accuracy of the operation risk level assessment of new power system transformers
and provide a reference for the later transformer condition assessment and maintenance plan formulation.