CHEN Bo, WANG Yaou, TAO Qian, et al. LSTM-based performance prediction model for coal mill in a coal-fired unit[J]. Thermal power generation, 2021, 50(6): 121-127.
CHEN Bo, WANG Yaou, TAO Qian, et al. LSTM-based performance prediction model for coal mill in a coal-fired unit[J]. Thermal power generation, 2021, 50(6): 121-127. DOI: 10.19666/j.rlfd.202009243.
基于长短期记忆神经网络的燃煤机组磨煤机性能预测模型
摘要
针对磨煤机在实际运行中内部磨损测量较为困难导致检修时间不确定的问题
提出以磨煤机电流为内部磨损特征参数
采用分时段多模型的思路建立基于最小二乘支持向量机的多时段磨煤机电流模型
从而获得典型工况下具有时间序列的电流模型值
在此基础上利用长短期记忆(LSTM)神经网络建立了磨煤机电流时序预测模型
推算磨煤机电流的时序变化
得到磨煤机性能退化的趋势。以某电厂660 MW燃煤机组中速磨煤机实际运行数据为研究对象
采用本文方法对该磨煤机运行状况进行预测
并与循环神经网络(RNN)模型预测结果进行对比。结果表明
本文LSTM神经网络预测模型可以得到同一运行工况下磨煤机电流清晰准确的时序变化趋势
与现场实际变化相一致
且预测精度高于RNN模型;同时结合辊套磨损量分析得到的磨煤机检修电流
可准确确定磨煤机检修的时间节点。
Abstract
In view of the difficulty in measuring the internal wear of the coal mill in actual operation and the uncertainty of the maintenance time
it is proposed to use the current of the coal mill as the internal wear characteristic parameter
and establish the multi-model based on the least square support vector machine(LSSVM) by using the idea of multi-modeling based on the period of time
thus to obtain time series coal mill current model values under typical operating conditions. On this basis
a long and short-term memory(LSTM) neural network is applied to establish a coal mill current sequence prediction model to calculate the coal mill current. The time sequence change of the coal mill shows the trend of performance degradation of the coal mill. Moreover
taking the actual operating data of a medium-speed coal mill in a 660 MW coal-fired unit in a power plant as the research object
the method in this paper is used to predict the operation status of the coal mill
and the results are compared with the prediction results of the cyclic neural network(RNN) model. The final results show that the LSTM neural network model in this paper can obtain a clear and accurate time-series change trend of the coal mill current under the same operating conditions
which is consistent with the actual changes on the site
and the prediction accuracy is higher than that of the RNN. The overhaul current of the coal mill can accurately determine the time node for overhaul of the coal mill.