Feng Ren, Yue Xiang, Alexis Pengfei Zhao, 等. Strategic PV Electricity Bidding in Spot Markets Under Forecast Uncertainty[J]. 中国电机工程学会电力与能源系统学报(英文), 2025,11(6):2652-2658.
Feng Ren, Yue Xiang, Alexis Pengfei Zhao, et al. Strategic PV Electricity Bidding in Spot Markets Under Forecast Uncertainty[J]. CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems, 2025, 11(6): 2652-2658.
Feng Ren, Yue Xiang, Alexis Pengfei Zhao, et al. Strategic PV Electricity Bidding in Spot Markets Under Forecast Uncertainty[J]. CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems, 2025, 11(6): 2652-2658.DOI: 10.17775/CSEEJPES.2025.01310.
Strategic PV Electricity Bidding in Spot Markets Under Forecast Uncertainty
摘要
Abstract
Photovoltaic (PV) power plants face revenue risks in electricity spot markets due to three critical factors: solar power forecast errors
penalty mechanisms stipulated by China's ‘Dual Detailed Rules’ for deviation settlement
and electricity price volatility. To address these challenges
this study proposes a dynamic bidding strategy that systematically integrates solar power forecasts with penalty-aware optimization and price risk management. The strategy utilizes three key operational inputs: 1) solar power forecasts
2) day-ahead (DA) and real-time (RT) electricity prices
and 3) penalty thresholds defined in the ‘Dual Detailed Rules’. Our methodology establishes a decision framework where hourly bids are optimized through a profit-maximization model that balances energy revenue against penalty risks. Compared to conventional bidding methods
the proposed strategy achieves a 28.1% revenue increase during a certain hour by strategically controlling declared generation. Furthermore
it yields a 19% higher revenue during peak fluctuation periods
demonstrating its applicability across all trading intervals. The core theoretical contribution lies in bridging operational forecasting with market rule compliance—transforming raw prediction data into penalty-adjusted bids through deterministic optimization. This approach provides a systematic framework for PV plants to effectively convert forecasting capabilities into enhanced financial performance under China's specific electricity market regulations.
关键词
Keywords
references
1. Notice on deepening the market-oriented reform of power prices for renewable energy to promote high-quality development of the Sector [S] . Beijing : National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), National Energy Administration, [Online ] . Available: https://www.ndrc.gov.cn/xxgk/zcfb/tz/202502/t20250209_1396066.html
16. South China Energy Regulatory Bureau of National Energy Administration of the People's Republic of China. Southern region's' dual rules' , Guangzhou : southern regulatory authority. [Online ] . Available: https://nfj.nea.gov.cn/xwzx/tzgg/202310/t20231009_140145.html.