Data-Sequence Modeling Based Causal Evaluation Method for Power Systems and Spatiotemporal Causality Variation Patterns
Regular Papers|更新时间:2026-02-06
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Data-Sequence Modeling Based Causal Evaluation Method for Power Systems and Spatiotemporal Causality Variation Patterns
Data-Sequence Modeling Based Causal Evaluation Method for Power Systems and Spatiotemporal Causality Variation Patterns
中国电机工程学会电力与能源系统学报(英文)2025年11卷第4期 页码:1429-1441
作者机构:
Key Laboratory of Modern Power System Simulation and Control & Renewable Energy Technology, Ministry of Education (Northeast Electric Power University),Jilin,China
Qi Chen, Gang Mu, Hongbo Liu, 等. Data-Sequence Modeling Based Causal Evaluation Method for Power Systems and Spatiotemporal Causality Variation Patterns[J]. 中国电机工程学会电力与能源系统学报(英文), 2025,11(4):1429-1441.
Qi Chen, Gang Mu, Hongbo Liu, et al. Data-Sequence Modeling Based Causal Evaluation Method for Power Systems and Spatiotemporal Causality Variation Patterns[J]. CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems, 2025, 11(4): 1429-1441.
Qi Chen, Gang Mu, Hongbo Liu, 等. Data-Sequence Modeling Based Causal Evaluation Method for Power Systems and Spatiotemporal Causality Variation Patterns[J]. 中国电机工程学会电力与能源系统学报(英文), 2025,11(4):1429-1441. DOI: 10.17775/CSEEJPES.2024.03030.
Qi Chen, Gang Mu, Hongbo Liu, et al. Data-Sequence Modeling Based Causal Evaluation Method for Power Systems and Spatiotemporal Causality Variation Patterns[J]. CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems, 2025, 11(4): 1429-1441. DOI: 10.17775/CSEEJPES.2024.03030.
Data-Sequence Modeling Based Causal Evaluation Method for Power Systems and Spatiotemporal Causality Variation Patterns
摘要
Abstract
The data acquisition technologies used in power systems have been continuously improving
thus laying the solid foundation for data-driven operation analysis of power systems. However
existing methods for analyzing the relationship between operational variables mainly depend on the mathematical model and element parameters of the power system. Therefore
a thorough data-based analysis method is required to investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics of power system operation
especially for new types of power systems. The causal inference method
which has been successfully applied in many fields
is a powerful tool for investigating the interaction of data variables. In this study
a causal inference method is proposed based on supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data for investigating the spatiotemporal causal relationships in power systems. Initially
a multiple data-sequence regression model is proposed to analyze the relationship of operation data variables. Next
the linear non-Gaussian acyclic model (LiNGAM) is used to calculate the causal index of the operational variables
and its limitations are analyzed. Furthermore
a new causal index of “full variable amplitude LiNGAM (FVA-LiNGAM)” is proposed by incorporating prior causal direct knowledge and considering the effect of real variable amplitude. Using the FVA-LiNGAM causal index
the causal relationship of operation variables can be investigated with higher spatiotemporal accuracy than that of the original LiNGAM index. Taking a real SCADA data subset of a provincial power system as an example
the validity of the FVA-LiNGAM causal index is verified. The variation patterns in spatiotemporal causality are explored using actual SCADA data sequences. The result shows that there indeed exists some spatiotemporal causality variation patterns between the operating variables of the power system.
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references
27. G. L. Zhang and H. W. Zhong. ( 2024, Jul ). Casual relationship identification between power system load and meteorological data based on improved FCI algorithm, Proceedings of the CSEE [Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.240407.