Error Correction Method of Ultra-Short-Term Prediction Based on Load Peak-Valley Characteristics for Wind Farm Cluster
Regular Papers|更新时间:2026-03-25
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Error Correction Method of Ultra-Short-Term Prediction Based on Load Peak-Valley Characteristics for Wind Farm Cluster
Error Correction Method of Ultra-Short-Term Prediction Based on Load Peak-Valley Characteristics for Wind Farm Cluster
中国电机工程学会电力与能源系统学报(英文)2026年12卷第1期 页码:258-270
作者机构:
Key Laboratory of Modern Power System Simulation and Control & Renewable Energy Technology, Ministry of Education (Northeast Electric Power University),Jilin,China
Mao Yang, Yunfeng Guo. Error Correction Method of Ultra-Short-Term Prediction Based on Load Peak-Valley Characteristics for Wind Farm Cluster[J]. 中国电机工程学会电力与能源系统学报(英文), 2026,12(1):258-270.
Mao Yang, Yunfeng Guo. Error Correction Method of Ultra-Short-Term Prediction Based on Load Peak-Valley Characteristics for Wind Farm Cluster[J]. CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems, 2026, 12(1): 258-270.
Mao Yang, Yunfeng Guo. Error Correction Method of Ultra-Short-Term Prediction Based on Load Peak-Valley Characteristics for Wind Farm Cluster[J]. 中国电机工程学会电力与能源系统学报(英文), 2026,12(1):258-270. DOI: 10.17775/CSEEJPES.2022.06180.
Mao Yang, Yunfeng Guo. Error Correction Method of Ultra-Short-Term Prediction Based on Load Peak-Valley Characteristics for Wind Farm Cluster[J]. CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems, 2026, 12(1): 258-270. DOI: 10.17775/CSEEJPES.2022.06180.
Error Correction Method of Ultra-Short-Term Prediction Based on Load Peak-Valley Characteristics for Wind Farm Cluster
the global installed capacity of wind power has grown rapidly
making the enhancement of wind power prediction accuracy crucial for facilitating the integration and consumption of renewable energy. Current research on ultra-short-term wind power prediction often overlooks load characteristics
resulting in an inability to adequately address grid connection requirements and load dispatching demands across different time periods. To address this limitation
this study proposes a novel approach to ultra-short-term wind power prediction error correction that incorporates load peak-valley characteristics. The methodology involves three key steps: first
deriving interannual prediction error characteristics from ultra short-term prediction results of wind farm clusters; second
establishing error correction intervals for load peak and valley periods
calculating corresponding correction coefficients
and analyzing the impact of varying correction radii on the final results; third
validating the proposed method through empirical analysis of wind farm clusters in three northeastern provinces. The results demonstrate that this approach not only improves wind power prediction accuracy but also significantly reduces the occurrence of harmful error days
thereby better meeting the operational requirements of power system dispatch.
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相关作者
Yan Zhou
Yonghui Sun
Sen Wang
Linquan Bai
Dongchen Hou
Rabea Jamil Mahfoud
Peng Wang
Xinchen Li
相关机构
College of Energy and Electrical Engineering, Hohai University
Department of Systems Engineering and Engineering Management, The University of North Carolina
Key Laboratory of Smart Grid of Ministry of Education, Tianjin University
State Key Laboratory of Reliability and Intelligence of Electrical Equipment, Hebei University of Technology