Yiwei Qiu, Jin Lin, Zhipeng Zhou, 等. Achieving an Accurate Random Process Model for PV Power Using Cheap Data: Leveraging the SDE and Public Weather Reports[J]. 中国电机工程学会电力与能源系统学报(英文), 2025,11(1):124-135.
Yiwei Qiu, Jin Lin, Zhipeng Zhou, et al. Achieving an Accurate Random Process Model for PV Power Using Cheap Data: Leveraging the SDE and Public Weather Reports[J]. CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems, 2025, 11(1): 124-135.
Yiwei Qiu, Jin Lin, Zhipeng Zhou, 等. Achieving an Accurate Random Process Model for PV Power Using Cheap Data: Leveraging the SDE and Public Weather Reports[J]. 中国电机工程学会电力与能源系统学报(英文), 2025,11(1):124-135.DOI: 10.17775/CSEEJPES.2021.09640.
Yiwei Qiu, Jin Lin, Zhipeng Zhou, et al. Achieving an Accurate Random Process Model for PV Power Using Cheap Data: Leveraging the SDE and Public Weather Reports[J]. CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems, 2025, 11(1): 124-135.DOI: 10.17775/CSEEJPES.2021.09640.
Achieving an Accurate Random Process Model for PV Power Using Cheap Data: Leveraging the SDE and Public Weather Reports
Stochastic differential equation (SDE)-based random process models of renewable energy sources (RESs) jointly capture evolving probability distribution and temporal correlation in continuous time. It enabled recent studies to remarkably improve performance of power system dynamic uncertainty quantification and optimization. However
considering the non-homogeneous random process nature of PV
there still remains a challenging question: how can a realistic and accurate daily SDE model for PV power be obtained that reflects its weather-dependent and non-Gaussian uncertainty in operation
especially when high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) or sky imager is unavailable for many distributed plants? To fill this gap
this article finds that an accurate SDE model for PV power can be constructed only using the data from low-resolution public weather reports. Specifically
for each day
an hourly parameterized Jacobi diffusion process recreates temporal patterns of PV volatility. Its parameters are mapped from the day's public weather reports to reflect varying weather conditions using a simple learning model. The SDE model jointly captures intraday and intrahour volatility. Statistical examination shows that the proposed approach outperforms a selection of the latest deep learning-based time series models on real-world data collected in Macau.
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references
1. International Energy Agency. ( 2021, Apr. ). Snapshot of global pv markets 2021 . [Online ] . Available: https://iea-pvps.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/IEA_PVPS_Snapshot_2021-V3.pdf.
29. Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau . ( 2020, Oct. ) 48-hour automatic weather forecast. [Online ] . Available: https://www.smg.gov.mo/zh/subpage/83/48hoursforecast.