Bo Hu, Yue Sun, Wei Huang, 等. Power System Reliability Assessment with Quantification of Demand Response Uncertainty Based on Advanced Sigmoid Cloud Model[J]. 中国电机工程学会电力与能源系统学报(英文), 2025,11(3):1347-1357.
Bo Hu, Yue Sun, Wei Huang, et al. Power System Reliability Assessment with Quantification of Demand Response Uncertainty Based on Advanced Sigmoid Cloud Model[J]. CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems, 2025, 11(3): 1347-1357.
Bo Hu, Yue Sun, Wei Huang, 等. Power System Reliability Assessment with Quantification of Demand Response Uncertainty Based on Advanced Sigmoid Cloud Model[J]. 中国电机工程学会电力与能源系统学报(英文), 2025,11(3):1347-1357.DOI: 10.17775/CSEEJPES.2021.01500.
Bo Hu, Yue Sun, Wei Huang, et al. Power System Reliability Assessment with Quantification of Demand Response Uncertainty Based on Advanced Sigmoid Cloud Model[J]. CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems, 2025, 11(3): 1347-1357.DOI: 10.17775/CSEEJPES.2021.01500.
Power System Reliability Assessment with Quantification of Demand Response Uncertainty Based on Advanced Sigmoid Cloud Model
摘要
Abstract
Demand response (DR) is usually regarded as a valuable balancing and reserve resource that contributes to maintaining power balance and integrating renewable energies. However
the price elasticity curve of the DR resources is influenced by consumers' behavioral uncertainty and therefore is difficult to predict. Consequently
additional risk may be introduced to composite power system reliability. Considering that
this paper investigates a reliability assessment of composite power system considering both the merits and potential uncertainty involved in the DR. First
the psychological behavior and consumption behavior of consumers are characterized in the DR modeling. A novel DR uncertainty index (denoted as
$I^{U}$
) measures uncertainty of consumer's behavior when electricity price changes. Then
an advanced Sigmoid cloud model is proposed to depict the comprehensive uncertain mapping relationships between price and
$I^{U}$
. Moreover
an improved demand elasticity matrix is proposed
in which price-quantity elastic coefficients are modified by the
$I^{U}$
index. Finally
a reliability assessmen
t framework for a composite power system is developed considering the uncertain price-based DR model and a k-means algorithm is used to accelerate the assessment process. Accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed method are investigated through the case study on RBTS