基于CVaR的梯级水电短期调度模型及其线性化

吴飞宇; 徐晨曦; 罗伟; 叶露阳; 雷霞

doi:10.16527/j.issn.1003-6954.20250508

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基于CVaR的梯级水电短期调度模型及其线性化

新型电力系统 | 更新时间：2026-02-13

- 基于CVaR的梯级水电短期调度模型及其线性化
- 基于CVaR的梯级水电短期调度模型及其线性化
- 四川电力技术 2025年48卷第5期页码：54-62
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 国能大渡河流域水电开发有限公司
  2. 西华大学电气与电子信息学院
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  国能大渡河流域水电开发有限公司科技项目(DDH-QT-2023-49)
- DOI：10.16527/j.issn.1003-6954.20250508
  中图分类号： TV737
- 纸质出版：2025
- 稿件说明：
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吴飞宇, 徐晨曦, 罗伟, 等. 基于CVaR的梯级水电短期调度模型及其线性化[J]. 四川电力技术, 2025,48(5):54-62.

吴飞宇, 徐晨曦, 罗伟, et al. 基于CVaR的梯级水电短期调度模型及其线性化[J]. 2025, 48(5): 54-62.
吴飞宇, 徐晨曦, 罗伟, 等. 基于CVaR的梯级水电短期调度模型及其线性化[J]. 四川电力技术, 2025,48(5):54-62. DOI： 10.16527/j.issn.1003-6954.20250508.

吴飞宇, 徐晨曦, 罗伟, et al. 基于CVaR的梯级水电短期调度模型及其线性化[J]. 2025, 48(5): 54-62. DOI： 10.16527/j.issn.1003-6954.20250508.

摘要

为应对区间流量不确定性造成的梯级水电发电风险，构建了一种基于条件风险价值(conditional value at risk

CVaR)的梯级水电短期调度模型。该模型以梯级水电站为调度单位，利用CVaR模型评估区间径流量不确定性给安全调度带来的风险；在模型中精细化构建了库容水位约束、泄流量尾水位约束、水电机组出力约束，使模型更贴近工程实际应用。针对梯级水电优化调度模型中存在的非线性约束，采用分段线性化、平面投影法分别对一元函数约束、二元函数约束进行线性化，将原模型转化为混合整数线性规划模型，通过成熟商业求解器GUROBI进行求解。通过西南地区某流域两座梯级水电站的模拟仿真，验证了所提方法及模型的可行性与合理性。

Abstract

To deal with the cascade hydropower generation risks caused by the uncertainty of inflow

a short-term dispatching model based on conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) is proposed

in which each cascade hydropower station is treated as a dispatching unit

and the CVaR approach is employed to evaluate the risks posed by the uncertainty of inflow on secure scheduling. The model incorporates refined constraints

including reservoir water level constraints

tailwater level constraints related to spill volumes

and output constraints for hydropower units

which makes it more closed to practical engineering applications. To handle the nonlinear constraints in the cascade hydropower optimization dispatching model

piecewise linearization and plane projection methods are applied to linearize univariate and bivariate function constraints

transforming the original model into a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model

which is then solved using the commercial solver GUROBI. A case study of two cascade hydropower stations in a river basin in Southwest China is carried out

and the results of simulation and analysis validate the feasibility and rationality of the proposed method and model.

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