基于美国典型极端气候事件的能源与交通系统韧性时空演化及启示

孙丽平; 张久明; 王榕

doi:10.16516/j.ceec.2026-033

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基于美国典型极端气候事件的能源与交通系统韧性时空演化及启示

极端气候事件下的能源与交通韧性 | 更新时间：2026-10-14

- 基于美国典型极端气候事件的能源与交通系统韧性时空演化及启示
- Spatiotemporal Evolution of Energy-Transportation System Resilience Under Typical Extreme Climate Events in the United States and Its Implications
- 南方能源建设 2026年13卷第3期页码：32-44
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 国家能源集团技术经济研究院,北京,102211
  2. 湖州工业控制技术研究院新能源与储能所,浙江,湖州,313098
  3. 龙源（北京）新能源工程设计研究院有限公司,北京,100034
- 作者简介：
  
  孙丽平，ORCID: 0000-0003-3551-24631991-，女，高级工程师，博士，主要从事新能源技术经济、风电技术、光伏技术、能源转型发展战略研究（e-mail）sunliping@zju.edu.cn
  张久明，1974-，男，高级工程师，硕士，主要从事耦合式能源、综合能源、零碳能源技术和战略研究（e-mail）zhangjiuming@hiict.org.cn
  王榕，1994-，女，工程师，硕士，主要从事新能源技术经济、风电技术、光伏技术、能源转型发展战略研究、电力市场交易研究（e-mail）arinaa@163.com
- 基金信息：
  
  中国电机工程学会第八届“青年人才托举工程”项目“煤电与新能源优化组合及大型风电光伏基地电源优化配置的研究”（043-2023-249）
- DOI：10.16516/j.ceec.2026-033
  中图分类号： TK01;P4
- 纸质出版：2026
- 稿件说明：
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孙丽平, 张久明, 王榕. 基于美国典型极端气候事件的能源与交通系统韧性时空演化及启示[J]. 南方能源建设, 2026: 32-44..

SUN Liping, ZHANG Jiuming, WANG Rong. Spatiotemporal Evolution of Energy-Transportation System Resilience Under Typical Extreme Climate Events in the United States and Its Implications[J]. Southern Energy Construction, 2026, 13(3): 32-44.
孙丽平, 张久明, 王榕. 基于美国典型极端气候事件的能源与交通系统韧性时空演化及启示[J]. 南方能源建设, 2026: 32-44.. DOI： 10.16516/j.ceec.2026-033.

SUN Liping, ZHANG Jiuming, WANG Rong. Spatiotemporal Evolution of Energy-Transportation System Resilience Under Typical Extreme Climate Events in the United States and Its Implications[J]. Southern Energy Construction, 2026, 13(3): 32-44. DOI： 10.16516/j.ceec.2026-033.

摘要

目的

在全球气候变化背景下，极端气候事件呈现出发生频率增加、强度增强和多因素叠加的发展趋势，对能源系统与交通基础设施的安全稳定运行构成严峻挑战。近年来，美国多起极端寒潮、热浪、野火和飓风事件引发大范围停电、燃油供应受限和公共交通停运，并通过能源与交通系统之间的高度耦合关系产生显著级联效应，暴露出传统基础设施规划设计基准、关键负荷识别以及跨系统协同治理在极端情景下面临的结构性脆弱性。

方法

文章以2010－2025年美国典型极端气候事件为研究样本，构建“气候冲击-关键节点失效-跨系统耦合扩散-恢复能力约束”的分析框架，系统梳理极端气候条件下能源与交通系统中断的时间演化特征。

结果

在此基础上，选取得州极端寒潮、加州野火与公共安全断电（Public Safety Power Shutoffs，PSPS）以及飓风 Sandy 3类具有代表性的事件开展对比分析，归纳提出能源主导型、治理权衡型和空间复合型3种能源-交通系统耦合失效模式。

结论

进一步结合我国“双碳”目标、新型电力系统和交通强国建设需求，从极端气候情景纳入规划设计、交通枢纽应急供能保障、分布式能源与微电网应用以及气象-能源-交通协同决策等方面提出系统韧性提升的启示。研究结果可为极端气候条件下能源与交通系统的协同规划、运行与应急治理提供参考。

Abstract

Objective

Under the background of global climate change

extreme climate events have become more frequent

intense

and compound

posing severe challenges to the safe and reliable operation of energy systems and transportation infrastructure. In recent years

multiple extreme cold waves

heatwaves

wildfires and hurr

icanes in the United States have caused large-scale power outages

fuel supply disruptions

and public transportation shutdowns. Through the strong coupling between energy and transportation systems

these events have generated cascading effects

exposing structural vulnerabilities in conventional infrastructure planning and design standards

critical load identification

and cross-system coordinated governance under extreme scenarios.

Method

Using representative U.S. extreme events from 2010 to 2025 as samples

this study developed an analytical framework of "climate shock-critical node failure-cross-system coupled propagation-recovery capacity constraints" to systematically examine the temporal evolution of energy and transportation system disruptions under extreme climate conditions.

Result

On this basis

three representative cases: the Texas extreme cold wave

California wildfires with public safety power shutoff (PSPS) and hurricane Sandy are comparatively analyzed to identify three coupled failure modes: energy-dominated failure

governance trade-off failure

and compound failure.

Conclusion

Finally

in light of China's "dual-carbon" goals and the development needs of a new power system and a transportation powerhouse

policy and engineering implications for enhancing system resilience are proposed

including the integration of extreme scenarios into planning

emergency energy supply for transportation hubs

deployment of distributed energy and microgrids

and coordinated meteorological-energy-transport decision-making. The findings provide references for the coordinated planning

operation

and emergency governance of energy and transportation systems under extreme climate conditions.

关键词

Keywords

references

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