STMAS-WRF三维风速预报产品在沿海风电场的适用性分析

吴影; 丁艺涵; 李焕连; 黄亦露; 顾婷婷; 王伟

doi:10.16516/j.ceec.2025-345

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STMAS-WRF三维风速预报产品在沿海风电场的适用性分析

极端气候事件下的能源与交通韧性 | 更新时间：2026-10-14

- STMAS-WRF三维风速预报产品在沿海风电场的适用性分析
- Analysis on the Applicability of STMAS-WRF Three-Dimensional Wind Speed Forecast Product in Coastal Wind Farms
- 南方能源建设 2026年13卷第3期页码：129-137
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 浙江省气象服务中心,浙江,杭州,310057
  2. 中国气象局气象干部培训学院,北京,100081
- 作者简介：
  
  吴影，ORCID: 0009-0006-1891-32801990-，女，工程师，硕士，主要从事电力气象服务研究工作（e-mail）285147027@qq.com
  李焕连，1983-，女，高级工程师，博士，主要从事气候预测和气候服务研究与教育培训工作（e-mail）lihuanlian@163.com
  黄亦露，1990-，女，工程师，硕士，主要从事专业气象服务工作（e-mail）380084549@qq.com
  顾婷婷，1985-，女，高级工程师，硕士，主要从事专业气象服务技术及产品研究工作（e-mail）157803772@qq.com
  王伟，1991-，男，工程师，硕士，主要从事气象模式评估与订正研究工作（e-mail）1219559462@qq.com
- 基金信息：
  
  浙江省自然科学基金联合基金项目“浙江沿海风电多时空尺度的精细化预测模型研究”（LZJMY23D050001）;浙江省气象局重点项目“海上风电场精细化风功率预测技术研究”（2022ZD12）
- DOI：10.16516/j.ceec.2025-345
  中图分类号： TK89;TM715
- 纸质出版：2026
- 稿件说明：
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吴影, 丁艺涵, 李焕连, 等. STMAS-WRF三维风速预报产品在沿海风电场的适用性分析[J]. 南方能源建设, 2026, 13(3): 129-137.

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吴影, 丁艺涵, 李焕连, 等. STMAS-WRF三维风速预报产品在沿海风电场的适用性分析[J]. 南方能源建设, 2026, 13(3): 129-137. DOI： 10.16516/j.ceec.2025-345.

. DOI： 10.16516/j.ceec.2025-345.

摘要

目的

随着“十四五”能源规划持续推进，我国风电产业已进入大规模、高比例发展的新阶段。对于风电场运营效率而言，提高风机风速预报的准确率至关重要。

方法

文章以沿海某风电场为代表，对STMAS-WRF模式三维风速预报产品的预报效果开展多尺度、全方位的检验评估。

结果

研究表明：（1）风机高度预报风速和实测风速趋势总体一致，预报风速整体较实测风速偏大。预报和实测风速存在较好的相关性，但随着预报时效的增加，准确率逐渐降低；（2）风机日、月平均风速预报趋势与实测风速一致，月平均风速预报偏差8月最小，6月次之；10月和11月预报偏差较大，说明秋季风速预报难度较大；（3）变化风速段和小风速段预报效果较额定风速段好，说明模式对于极值的预报能力存在不足；（4）A、B区风机预报效果较C、D区好，可能与C、D区地势更高有关，预报难度和复杂度增大。

结论

STMAS-WRF模式预报效果较好，且误差分布存在一定的规律性。下一步可对该产品进行系统性订正，提高风速预报准确率，服务于“双碳”目标下的风力资源评估及风电场风功率预报。

Abstract

Objective

With the continuous advancement of the "14th Five-Year Plan" for energy

China's wind power industry has entered a new stage of large-scale and high-proportion development. For the operational efficiency of wind farms

improving the accuracy of wind speed forecasts for wind turbines is of vital importance.

Method

This paper took the coastal wind farm as a representative to conduct an applicability study on the application ef

fect of the three-dimensional wind speed forecast product of the STMAS-WRF forecast model.

Result

The research shows that: (1) The trends of the predicted wind speed and the measured wind speed at the height of the wind turbine are generally consistent

and the predicted wind speed is generally larger than the measured wind speed. There is a good correlation between the forecast and the measured wind speed

but as the forecast period increases

the accuracy gradually decreases. (2) The forecast trends of the daily and monthly average wind speeds of the wind turbines are consistent with the measured wind speeds. The deviation of the monthly average wind speed forecast is the smallest in August and the second smallest in June. The forecast deviations in October and November are relatively large

indicating that it is more difficult to predict wind speed in autumn. (3) The forecast effect of the variable wind speed range and the low wind speed range is better than that of the rated wind speed range

indicating that the model's prediction ability for extreme values is insufficient. (4) The prediction effect of wind turbines in area A and area B is better than that in area C and area D

which may be related to the higher terrain in area C and area D

increasing the difficulty and complexity of prediction.

Conclusion

The prediction performance of the STMAS-WRF model is relatively good

and the error distribution has certain regularity. The next step is to systematically revise this product to improve the accuracy of wind speed forecasting

serving the wind resource assessment and wind power forecasting of wind farms under the "dual carbon" goals.

关键词

Keywords

references

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