基于深度学习的关中地区输电线路区域雷电潜势预测

董立凡; 李伟; 南泽文; 崔校鹏; 杨兰均

doi:10.16516/j.ceec.2025-170

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基于深度学习的关中地区输电线路区域雷电潜势预测

极端气候事件下的能源与交通韧性 | 更新时间：2026-10-14

- 基于深度学习的关中地区输电线路区域雷电潜势预测
- Lightning Potential Prediction for Transmission Lines in the Guanzhong Region Based on Deep Learning
- 南方能源建设 2026年13卷第3期页码：92-102
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 西安交通大学电工材料电气绝缘全国重点实验室,陕西,西安,710049
  2. 咸阳市气象局,陕西,咸阳,712000
  3. 国网陕西省电力有限公司电力科学研究院,陕西,西安,710100
- 作者简介：
  
  董立凡，ORCID: 0009-0000-9011-61001991-，男，工程师，硕士，主要从事电力及新能源气象研究工作（e-mail）donglf0508@163.com
  李伟，1987-，男，高级工程师，博士，主要从事电力系统防雷、接地与输电线路过电压方面研究工作（e-mail）175526631@qq.com
  南泽文，2000-，男，硕士，主要从事输电线防雷方面研究工作（e-mail）nzw0227@stu.xjt.edu.cn
  崔校鹏，2001-，男，硕士，主要从事雷电预测及防护方面研究工作（e-mail）947042110@qq.com
  杨兰均，（e-mail）yanglj@mail.xjtu.edu.cn
- 基金信息：
  
  陕西省电力有限公司科技项目“陕西雷电、覆冰灾害风险预测与多元气象数据融合关键技术研究”（5226KY25000J）;咸阳市气象局科学技术研究项目“基于深度学习的咸阳市雷电预测技术研究”（2025SJZJ-9）
- DOI：10.16516/j.ceec.2025-170
  中图分类号： TM7;S716
- 纸质出版：2026
- 稿件说明：
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董立凡, 李伟, 南泽文, 等. 基于深度学习的关中地区输电线路区域雷电潜势预测[J]. 南方能源建设, 2026, 13(3): 92-102.

.
董立凡, 李伟, 南泽文, 等. 基于深度学习的关中地区输电线路区域雷电潜势预测[J]. 南方能源建设, 2026, 13(3): 92-102. DOI： 10.16516/j.ceec.2025-170.

. DOI： 10.16516/j.ceec.2025-170.

摘要

目的

由于输电线路分布范围广、高度高，极易遭受雷击的危害。文章旨在制定有效的事前雷电防护措施，实现输电线路雷击灾害的全过程防护。

方法

以关中地区为例，筛选出33个与雷电活动高度相关的物理量作为特征，利用参数敏感性自适应（Parameter Sensitivity Adaptation，PSA）算法优化学习率、隐藏层节点数及正则化系数，并基于多变量长短时记忆网络（Long Short Term Memory

LSTM）构建输电线路区域雷电潜势预测模型，从而实现未来12 h输电线路区域雷电活动的预测。

结果

研究表明，修正

指数、Charba修正指数等33个大气物理量与雷电活动高度相关，可作为雷电潜势预测的特征。在模型超参数方面，通过PSA算法确定的最佳组合为：学习率2.7×10

−4

、隐藏层节点数29、正则化系数

4.1582

×10

−4

。此外，当批次样本量设定为16、序列长度设定为20时，模型可达到最小误差值。在此条件下，预测正确率为80.94%，命中率为71.3%。

结论

综合考虑输电线路的地理分布及其与气象探空站之间的距离，预测结果具有一定的有效性。

Abstract

Objective

Due to the wide distribution range and high height of transmission lines

they are highly susceptible to lightning strikes. This study aims to develop effective pre lightning protection measures and achieve full process protection against lightning strikes disaster on transmission lines.

Method

Taking the Guanzhong region as

an example

selected thirty-three physical quantities highly correlated with lightning activity as features

and used the parameter sensitivity adaptation (PSA) algorithm to optimize the learning rate

number of hidden layer nodes and regularization coefficient. Based on a multivariate long short term memory (LSTM) network

a lightning potential prediction model for transmission line areas was constructed to predict lightning activity in the next twelve hours.

Result

Research indicates that thirty-three atmospheric physical quantities

such as the modified

index and Charba modified index

are highly correlated with lightning activity and can serve as features for lightning potential prediction. In terms of model hyperparameters

the optimal combination determined through the PSA algorithm is: learning rate of 2.7×10

−4

number of hidden layer nodes of 29

and regularization coefficient of

4.1582

×10

−4

. Furthermore

when the batch size is set to 16 and the sequence length is set to 20

the model achieves the minimum error value. Under these conditions

the prediction accuracy is 80.94%

and the probability of detection (POD) is 71.3%.

Conclusion

Taking into account the geographical distribution of transmission lines and their distance from meteorological sounding stations

the prediction results have a certain degree of validity.

关键词

Keywords

references

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