DENG Zhi-ping, ZHONG Min, JIANG Shui-hua, et al. Efficient reliability analysis of three-dimensional slopes with nonstationary random field modeling of soil parameters[J]. 2025, 46(10): 3243-3252.
DENG Zhi-ping, ZHONG Min, JIANG Shui-hua, et al. Efficient reliability analysis of three-dimensional slopes with nonstationary random field modeling of soil parameters[J]. 2025, 46(10): 3243-3252.DOI: 10.16285/j.rsm.2024.1395.
考虑到平稳随机场难以准确表征土体参数随深度变化的空间变异性,且三维边坡可靠度分析往往存在耗时冗长问题,采用逐步Karhunen-Loève级数分解法生成平稳随机场与考虑深度效应(随机场实现时不排水抗剪强度均值所在深度不同)的非平稳随机场,并提出了基于分段逆回归方法(sliced inverse regression,简称SIR)与极致梯度提升方法(extreme gradient boosting,简称XGBoost)的代理模型,结合蒙特卡洛模拟(Monte Carlo simulation,简称MCS)进行三维边坡可靠度分析。以某一典型三维边坡为例,验证了所提方法的有效性,并对比了基于平稳随机场和非平稳随机场两者的计算结果,探讨了埋深参数与趋势分量对三维边坡可靠度分析结果的影响规律。结果表明:提出的代理模型可以准确高效地计算三维边坡失效概率;埋深参数与趋势分量对边坡可靠度分析结果影响较大,参数值需要根据原位数据合理选取;基于考虑深度效应的非平稳随机场理论进行边坡可靠度分析时,随趋势分量变大,失效概率变大,不考虑深度效应影响的非平稳随机场计算结果相反。研究成果可为实际三维边坡高效可靠度分析提供有效途径。
Abstract
Characterizing the spatial variability of soil parameters with depth using stationary random fields is challenging
and three-dimensional (3D) slope reliability analysis is often time-consuming. Therefore
the stepwise Karhunen-Loève series decomposition method is employed to generate the stationary random field and the nonstationary random field considering the depth effect (the mean depth of undrained shear strength is different when the random field is realized). A surrogate model based on sliced inverse regression (SIR) and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) is proposed
combined with Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) for 3D slope reliability analysis. Take a typical 3D slope
the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified. The calculation results based on stationary and nonstationary random fields are compared
and the influence of the burial depth parameter and the trend component on the 3D slope reliability analysis results is discussed. The results indicate that the surrogate model proposed in this study can accurately and efficiently calculate the 3D slope failure probability. The burial depth parameter and trend component significantly influence the slope reliability analysis results
and these parameter values should be selected reasonably according to the in-situ data. When the slope reliability is analyzed using nonstationary random field theory considering the depth effect
the failure probability increases as the trend component b increases. Conversely
without considering the depth effect
the nonstationary random field yields opposite results. The research results can provide an effective approach for the efficient reliability analysis of actual 3D slope.